Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SK is down 7 cents and near 14.25. SMK is near 399.4. BOK is near 56.80. CK is down 3 cents and near 5.49. WK is down 7 cents and near 6.17. KWK is down 3 cents and near 5.73. US stocks are higher. US dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Risk off?
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 12 yuan in soybeans, down 2 in Corn, up 38 in Soymeal, up 36 in Soyoil, and down 12 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 20 ringgit at 3,903 (basis June) at midsession on weaker crude, soyoil prices.
Argentina will still be favorable in most areas for late season crop development and most of the nation will receive meaningful rain tonight through Saturday followed by a period of drier conditions which will favor fieldwork advancement. Trade lowered 2020/21 corn production to 45.8 million tons. USDA est Argentina corn production at 47.5 million tons. Trade lowered soybean production to 46.9 million tons. USDA est Argentina soybean production at 47.5 million tons
Net drying in much of Brazil through the end of March, excluding the far south, will still benefit fieldwork advancement but also raise concern of crop moisture stress. Some shower and thunderstorm activity will return to drier areas of Brazil in early April.
Farm Futures magazine indicated that producers expect to plant 93.6 mil acres of corn in 2021, up 3 pct from the 90.8 mil acres seeded a year ago. Soybean plantings for 2021 were forecast at 88.5 mil acres, up 6 pct from the USDA 2020 estimate of 83.1 million acres. Total wheat plantings were seen at 45.6 mil acres, up 2.8 pct year-on-year. Winter wheat seedings were estimated at 32.0 mil acres, up 5 pct year-on-year and close to the USDA Jan. 12 estimate of 31.9 mil. Spring wheat plantings (excluding durum) were seen at 11.4 mil acres, down 6.8 pct from 12.2 mil acres in 2020.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 5,000 SRW Wheat; and bough 1,000 Corn; 4,000 soybeans, 1,000 soymeal and 2,000 lots of soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 350,000 Corn; net long 159,000 Soybeans; net long 56,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 100,000 Soyoil.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
