Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SH is down 8 cents and near 12.50. SMH is near 347.9. BOH is near 55.82. CH is down 1 cent and near 5.84. WH is down 6 cents and near 8.02. KWH is down 5 cents and near 8.21. MWZ is down 3 cents and near 10.33.
USDA report tomorrow. US stocks are higher. Crude is higher. US Dollar is lower.
Dalian soybean, palmoil, soyoil and soymeal futures were lower. Corn was higher. China Evergrande missed debt repayments. Raises GDP concern. China Bank policy inflationary.
Some long liquidation overnight in front of USDA report. Lack of concrete results from Biden/Ukraine talk adds uncertainty to Ukraine corn exports. Some feel bottom line for EPA mandate announcement was a little disappointing/ negative.
US south plains and Midwest dry. Temps turn warmer. E Australia rains. EU normal. South 1/3 Braizl and NE Argentina will see mostly dry weather over nexr 7-10 days.
US Sep-Nov soybean exports 851 mil bu down 24 pct versus last year. SH 12.00-13.00 range. Nov China US buying near 670 mt. China total 100 mmt import would =400 mt per day. Trade est US soybean carryout at 355 mil bu vs 340. World end stocks 104.4 mmt vs 103.8. Matif rapeseed futures higher. 2022 French acres below 5 year average. Canada canola lower.
Some feel that that CH may be in a 5.60-5.90 range. Dry SA weather could push to 6.25-6.50. Trade est US corn carryout at 1,475 mil bu vs 1,493. World end stocks 304.6 mmt vs 304.4.
US wheat futures lower on new concern about World import demand. Trade watching US and Russia relations and impact conflict would have on wheat exports. Matif wheat futures ended higher on EU export pace too high. Uncertain Russia exports. Latest Russia wheat export prices near $331 up $10. New export tax near $90. Trade est US wheat carryout at 589 mil bu vs 583. World end stocks 276.0 mmt vs 275.8. Some still feel KWH will find support near 8.00 and make new highs Q1 2022.
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