Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is up 2 cents and near 16.78. Overnight high was 16.97. SX is near 14.85. SMK is near 485.1. BOK is near 74.94. CK is down 9 cents and near 7.53. Overnight high was 7.67. CZ is near 6.53. WK is down 8 cents and near 10.98. Overnight high was 11.32. KWK is down 4 cents and near 10.85. Overnight high was 11.19. MWK is down 8 cents and near 10.61. Overnight high was 11.19.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude in lower. Most commodities are lower.
There is a lot of market moving news overnight. Grains opened higher and traded higher on continued concern about the amount of wheat, corn and sunoil that will be shipped from Russia and Ukraine as the War continues. Talk of new ceasefire talks weighed on corn and wheat. Russia asked China for military aid. China crackdown on increase Covid cases raised concern about their domestic demand and imports. China locked down a key port city of Shenzhen. Shenzhen is also a key tech production city that is a key producer for Apple. US Fed meets this week. Most look for a 25 basis point hike in rates. Some feel they should be more aggressive with US inflation highest in 40 years. Dalian. Soybean, soymeal, palmoil, soyoil and corn futures were all lower.
Wheat future dropped last week on profit taking. Lack Black Sea and EU exports plus new worries about US south plains HRW weather could eventually support Chicago and KKC wheat futures.
Corn futures may have limited downside especially Dec as long as Ukraine cannot exports 550 mil bu of corn and whatever Brazil corn crop is, it may not be available until July. Brazil rains could help their 2nd corn crop. Argentina dryness could hurt their late planted corn crop.
SK failed to close over 17.00 and SMK over 490. This triggered profit taking. Look for increased volatility. Some could see US soybean exports closer to 2,170 and 2021/22 US carryout at 205. Despite a US 2023 crop of 4,540 mil bu, crush near 2,300 and exports near 2,300 could suggest US 2022/23 carryout near 75. This despite talk of lower China soybean import pace.
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