Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SK is up 6 cents and near 13.98. Overnight low was 13.90. SMK is near 401.2. BOK is near 53.39. Asian vegoil, Matif canola oil and Canada canola oil are all lower. CK is up 2 cents and near 5.49. Overnight low was 5.46. WK is up 3 cents and near 6.33. KWK is up 1 cent and near 5.88. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is higher.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are down roughly 5 cents; HRW down 15; HRS down 3; Corn is up 4 cents; Soybeans down 15 cents; Soymeal unchanged, and; Soyoil down 230 points. Crushing margins are down 10 cents at $0.60 (July); Oil share down 1% at 39%.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 20 yuan in soybeans, up 4 in Corn, down 16 in Soymeal, down 164 in Soyoil, and down 96 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 72 ringgit at 3,727 (basis June) at midsession on higher supply outlook.
One of the most significant precipitation changes in last evening’s GFS model run was the increase in the eastern half of the Northern Plains March 26 – 28. The Northern Plains continues to be in need of a more widespread meaningful precipitation event due to ongoing drought conditions.
In Argentina, last evening’s GFS model run showed a notable reduction in rainfall across the southern half of the nation March 26 – 30. In Brazil, much of the nation is still expected to trend drier into next week with the exception of the far south. This will still benefit soybean harvesting and Safrinha corn planting.
Some of yesterdays grain losses linked to fund long liquidation before USDA March 31 report and month end quarter end selling. Rains in US and Argentina and drier Brazil weather also weighed on prices. Trade may also be comfortable with US 2021 93 million corn and 90 million soybean acres and crop outlook. Argentina soybean crop rated 6 pct G/E and 44 mmt and USDA 47.5. Argentina corn crop rated 22 pct G/E and 45 mmt vs USDA 46.5. KC wheat down 50 cents from high due to improved US weather. Russia export policy still uncertain. USDA attaché est China soybean imports at 99 mmt and 100 next year. Trade est China corn imports at 32 mmt vs USDA 24. China/US talks got off to a bumpy start.
U.S All Wheat sales are up 2%, shipments down 2% with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase Corn up 109%, shipments up 85% (USDA) up 46% , Sorghum up 162%, shipments up 198% (USDA) up 45% and Soybeans up 74%, shipments up 76% (USDA up 34%)
On Thursday, Managed funds were net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold 35,000 Corn; net sold 14,000 Soybeans; sold 4,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net sold 9,000 lots of Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 11,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 345,000 Corn; net long 136,000 Soybeans; net long 50,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 94,000 Soyoil.
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