Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SH is up 10 cents and near 15.84. SMH is near 457.6. BOH is near 64.89. CH is up 5 cents and near 6.46. WH is up 7 cents and near 7.78. KWH is up 2 cents and near 8.03. MWH is up 5 cents and near 9.48.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Focus in now on how much US Fed will raise rates. Crude is higher as global demand looks to exceed supply. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower
Dalian soybeans and soymeal were higher. Pamoil, soyoil and corn are lower. China reports Q4 sow herd down 3 pct but still up 4 pct vs 2021. Total pig herd up 10 pct vs 2021 at 449 million head. Hog producers report big losses. This week, soymeal prices were record high.
March soybean futures are higher after yesterday’s volatile selloff. On Thursday, futures rallied on CONAB low estimate of Brazil crop. Sold off on fact US soybean exports are down 21 pct vs last year and that China may have washed out Brazil soybean sales. This after USDA dropped China soybean imports 3 mmt to 97. CONAB est RGDS soybean crop at 13.7 mmt vs 21.2 previous, Parana 13.0 vs 18.4 and MGDS 9.7 vs 12.5. Paraguay is said to be buying Argentina soybeans for the first time ever. Talk if China buying Argentina soyoil is helping soyoil prices.
March corn futures are higher after yesterday’s wild range with prices ending lower after making new highs. CONAB corn crop estimate was near 112 mmt vs USDA 114. This was not enough to satisfy the bulls. Fact US corn exports are down 20 pct from last year also did not help. US export sales report confirmed that China cancelled 375 mt. Lack of confirmation that China had bought 2 mmt US summer corn also weighed on futures. US farmer was an active seller of old and new crop corn at session high. There is talk Argentina corn crop could be 48 mmt vs USDA 54 and could even drop to 2018 crop of only 38 mmt. There is also talk that Russia Navy maneuvers is slowing Ukraine vessel shipments.
Wheat futures are higher. Fact US President asked US families to leave Ukraine increased concern of a Russian invasion. Russia maneuvers in Belarus also increased concerns. US wheat exports are down 25 pct from last year. US 1 week south plains forecast is warm and dry, 2nd week calls for rains in E HRW, SRW areas and Delta. Most of US HRW areas will miss this rain. World vessel freight rates are finally higher with Panamax up 30 pct.
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