Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SK is up 7 cents and near 15.90. SMK is near 453.4. BOK is near 71.33. CK is up 8 cents and near 7.43. CZ is near 6.94. WK is up 10 cents and near 9.95. KWK is up 14 cents and near 10.27. MWK is up 22 cents and near 10.87.
US stocks are mixed. Crude is unchanged and near $99. Gold, silver, copper, sugar and cotton are higher. Coffee and cocoa are lower.
US plains and central Brazil are dry. There are rains in the forecast there next week.
Soybeans, soymeal and soyoil are higher. Key now is US soybeans export demand especially from China. China covid zero tolerance raises concern about energy and commodity import demand. Some feel 15.75 SK and 14.40 SX should be key support. Some estimate China 2021/22 soybean imports at 95.5 mmt, US 31.0, Brazil 59.6 and Argentina 3.0. Some feel China imports could be higher and Brazil lower which could add to US exports. China 2022/23 soybean imports are estimated near 100.0 mmt, US 31.5, Brazil 63.3. Lower Brazil crop could reduce their exports and increase US exports.
Corn futures appear to be adding war premium after Russia is targeting key Odessa port. 6.80 should be key support for CZ. Some estimate China corn imports near 26.3 mmt, 17 US, 8.3 mmt. 1.7 mmt Ukraine. Most doubt Russia and Ukraine will export 10.0 mmt. China 2022/23 corn imports near 27.0 with 10.0 US, 8.0 Ukraine and 7.0 Brazil. Warm and dry central dry Brazil weather could stress their second corn crop. Ukraine War continues to add doubt to Ukraine 2022/23 exports.
Wheat appears to be adding Ukraine war premium. Shelling of Ukraine ports add to concerns about their export capabilities. USDA will issue its first weekly wheat crop ratings by state on today. Some estimate US 2021/22 wheat carryout at 550 vs USDA 653. Key is final exports and feed use. US 2022/23 wheat carryout is estimated near 425 vs USDA 736. This due to lower crop. KWK support is near 10.00. 10.85 initial resistance. Dry US south plains spring weather could push KWK closer to 12.00.
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