Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher but off session highs. SK is up 10 cents and near 16.73. Overnight high was 16.99. SMK is near 451.5. Overnight high was 458. BOK is near 76.17. Overnight high was 77.37. CK is up 5 cents and near 7.30. Overnight high was 7.52. WK is up 50 cents and near 11.10. Overnight high was 11.34. WZ is down 19 cents and near 8.73. KWK is up 31 cents and near 11.07. Overnight high was 11.48. MWK is up 6 cents and near 10.64. Overnight high was 11.13.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher and near $109. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, sugar and cotton are higher. Dalian soybean, palmoil, soyoil and corn were higher. Soymeal was lower. US Fed more dovish.
Overnight grains were sharply higher on talk of short position liquidation and margin calls.
Ukraine invasion continues. Russia trying to find ways to export grain from Baltics. One Russia exporter declared bankruptcy. Black Sea export still stopped esp Ukraine corn. 2 Russian Banks were taken off sanctions to allow food/grain trade. Problems rising for planting Ukraine 2022 crops; transport, logistics, fuel, seed, fertilizer, spare parts and labor.
The Biden administration is preparing to confront China on its industrial subsidies and seek ways to protect America’s edge in new technologies, hardening U.S. economic policy toward the nation’s chief global rival.
Trade estimates South America soybean crop down 20 mmt from USDA estimate of 185.3. India Feb sunoil imports down 54 pct. EU grocery markets limiting sunoil sales. USDA announced 266 mt US soybean sales to China 264 mt to unknown. US weekly old crop soybean sales est near 600-1,200 mt, new crop 600-1,050 mt.
CK tested 7.52. Ukraine 500-600 mil corn exports stopped. S America crop down 400 mil bu. Feeders requested EU to allow GMO corn to be fed. EU could allow crops on set aside. 500 mil bu less Ukraine corn and 400 mil bu less SA supply could drop US carryout to 650.
Total Black Sea wheat export supplies could be down 15 mmt. EU needs to stop 5 mmt exports. WK tested 11.34. KWK tested 11.48. KWZ near 8.76. MWK tested 11.13. US weekly corn export sales est near 600-1,200 mt, US wheat sales est near 200-650 mt.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
