Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. Hope everyone had a safe and Happy Holiday. SH is up 10 cents and near 13.51. SMH is near 403.6. BOH is near 55.78. CH is up 5 cents and near 6.11. WH is up 2 cents and near 8.16. KWH is up 2 cents and near 8.63. MWZ is up 2 cents and near 10.34.
US stocks are marginally higher. Crude, gold, silver and copper are lower. Omicron vs China stimulation their economy vs US Fed policy vs inflation. 2022 could bring more volatility.
Dalian soybean. Palmoil and soyoil futures were higher. Corn and soymeal were lower. Higher trade due to 2 week warm and dry S Brazil, NE Argentina, US plains weather forecast. US rains will be in Delta and Tenn valley. US south plains dry. South US temps above normal.
SH is now up 108 cents from Dec 14 low. SMH is up $69 and just $5 off of contract highs. SH could soon test 13.75 resistance and contact high near 408.6 SMH. BOH resistance 56.49.
CH is up 100 cents from September low and 50 cents from last weeks low. CH could see test 6.16 resistance. Higher traded could trigger increase in technical buying. Lower 1st crop Brazil yields could tighten South America 2022 supply and add to US demand. US domestic corn use higher than USDA estimate. Corn exports higher esp Canada/Mexico. US farmer increase old crop sales to 60 pct. A lot of basis contracts. Only 10-15 new crop sold.
WH is up 65 cents from last weeks low, KWH is up 82 cents, MWH is up 32 cents. Trade over 8.70 KWH suggest a test of 8.92. Some est US 2022 crop at 1,825 carryout 470. US south plains dryness supports KC futures. Some est 2022 HRW crop at 737, carryout 191.
Key USDA report Jan 12. Final US 2021 crop numbers, Dec 1 US grain stocks and 2022 WW acres. Range of guess for US 2021/22 corn carryout 1,279-1,508, soybeans 355-401, wheat 588-680. US 2022 corn acres 91.0-92.0 vs 93.3 ly, soybeans 87.5-89.0 vs 87.2, wheat 48.0-49.0 vs 46.7/ Range of guess for US 2022/23 corn carryout 1,434-1,815, soybeans 378-585, wheat 682-907.
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