Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, sugar and cotton are lower.
US Midwest weather forecast suggest below normal rains especially in west, NW and N plains. Could see above normal rains in SW, Delta and SE. There is a ring of hot temps around the US Midwest from PNW to SW to Delta and Florida panhandle. Soybeans could see short covering before this weeks USDA monthly supply and demand report. Average trade guess for US 2023/24 soybean carryout is 199 mil bu vs 350 in June. World 2023/24 soybean carryout could remains near 121 mmt vs 123 in June and 101 this year. Cargill stopped 543 July soyoil receipts.
Corn futures has found good resistance near 5.00 CU and 5.00 CZ. China continues to be active buyer of Brazil corn. It remains warm and dry across N China. Corn could see some short covering before this weeks USDA monthly supply and demand report. Key could USDA est of US corn yield. Average trade guess for US 2023/23 corn carryout is 1,420 mil bu vs 1,452 in June. World 2023/24 corn carryout could remain near 314 mmt vs 314 in June and 298 this year.
Wheat news is mixed. Trade est US 2023 wheat crop near 1,683 mil bu vs 1,665 in June. Winter wheat is est at 1,146 vs 1,136 in June. HRW 532 vs 525. SRW 407 vs 402. Trade first est of US spring wheat crop near at 477 mil vs 446 ly. Durum 60 vs 64 ly. MLS protein wheat continues to gain on SRW. There is concern about Canada, N China and C Russia wheat crops. Trade est World 2023/24 wheat end stocks is near 269 mmt vs 270 in June and 266 last year.
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