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Grains Mixed as Volatility Continues


Grains are mixed. SK is down 18 cents and near 16.71. SMK is near 449.8. BOK is near 75.43. CK is down 6 cents and near 7.19. WK is up 61 cents and near 10.49. KWK is up 56 cents and near 10.51. MWK is down 2 cents and near 10.51.

US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher and near $104. Gold, silver, coffee and cotton are lower. Copper is higher. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil, soyoil and corn were higher.

Ukraine invasion continues. Russia may default on sovereign debt due to Ruble collapse.

Trade estimates South America soybean crop down 20 mmt from USDA estimate of 185.3. USDA est South America soybean stocks already at 8 year low. World rapeseed prices higher. Overnight, SK traded down to 16.57 before bouncing back to 16.92. Crude oil is $104.  USDA estimates World vegoil production and use at 215 mmt, 40 mmt for biofuel. There was talk that China was buying US and Brazil old crop soybeans.

CK tested 7.45. Ukraine 500-600 mil corn exports stopped. S America crop down 400 mil bu. Feeders requested EU to allow GMO corn to be fed. Could increase US corn imports. There remains concern about Ukraine ability to plant 2022 crops, Central Brazil dry. 500 mil bu less Ukraine corn and 400 mil bu less SA supply could drop US carryout to 650. Matif corn futures all time highs on lack of Black Sea imports.

US south plains HRW weather warm and dry. Delta, TN and OH valley wet.

Total Black Sea wheat export supplies could be down 15 mmt. EU needs to stop 5 mmt exports. WK traded near 10.59 and first time over 10.00 since 200.8, KWK is near 10.78. Matif wheat futures making all time highs on Black Sea export loss. Some asking how high will wheat need to go to factor in 20 mmt less World exports.

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