Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is up 10 cents and near 12.59. SMH is near 415.7. BOH is near 40.85. CH is up 2 cents and near 4.45. WH is down 1 cent and near 6.15. KWH is down 1 cent and near 5.77. US has agreed to a new relief package. Will POTUS sign it? Trade still watching new news on new UK virus and success of vaccines. US stocks are marginally higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude and copper are higher.
CBOT grain trading will close early Thursday and be closed Friday for Holiday.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 6 yuan in soybeans, up 20 in Corn, up 18 in Soymeal, down 40 in Soyoil, and down 72 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 124 ringgit at 3,536 (basis March) looking at a supply crunch.
Conditions in Argentina will still be stressful for crops through at least Monday. There will be some erratic showers and thunderstorms, especially in the west. However, any meaningful moisture in central and eastern areas will be localized. Overnight maps suggest increase in rain next Tuesday due to a frontal boundary which would be beneficial. Morning maps are not as wet. Net drying will occur in far southern and some of northeastern Brazil through next Tuesday with rain elsewhere in the region. Last night maps suggest a frontal boundary in Argentina could move into far southern Brazil in the middle part of next week. Morning maps are not as wet.
Soybean futures are supported by concern over SA crops and potential for increased demand for US SB.
Brazil growers estimate 2021 crop at 127 mmt or 6 mmt (200 mil bu) below USDA.
Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 550-800 mt versus 922 last week.
Nearby soyoil futures traded above 41 cents for first time since May, 2014.
Corn futures are also supported by talk of lower SA crops and potential for increased demand for US corn..
Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 600-1,000 mt versus 1,924 last week.
US wheat futures lack new news. Matif and Black Sea futures in strong inverses. Russia Feb prices higher.
Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated near 300-500 mt versus 540 last week.
On Tuesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 4,000 SRW wheat, 12,000 corn, 5,000 soybeans, 2,000 soymeal and 2,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 17,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 325,000 Corn; net long 244,000 Soybeans; net long 100,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 108,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 2,500 contracts; HRW Wheat up 3,200; Corn up 9,500; Soybeans down 12,000 contracts; Soymeal down 14,000 lots, and; Soyoil down 4,200.
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