Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to higher. SK is up 7 cents and near 13.84. Managed funds could be adding to longs due to concern over South America weather. SMK is near 426.6. BOK is near 46.66. CK is unchanged and near 5.49. WK is up 3 cents and near 6.68. KWK is up 2 cents and near 6.45. March grain options expire today. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Silver and copper are gaining on gold.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 28 cents; HRW up 23; HRS up 17; Corn is up 15 cents; Soybeans up 15 cents; Soymeal unchanged, and; Soyoil up 120 points. Crushing margins are up $0.01 at $0.65 (July); Oil share up 1% at 35%.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 29 yuan in soybeans, up 11 in Corn, down 19 in Soymeal, up 28 in Soyoil, and up 18 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 37 ringgit at 3,526 (basis May).
Net drying will continue across much of Argentina through next Thursday. Last evening’s GFS model was drier in week 2 of the outlook than the midday GFS model. Conditions in much of Brazil will be mostly favorable.
Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 300-900 mt versus 804 last week. There were unfounded rumors yesterday that China may cancel unshipped open US soybean sales. Argentina soybean crop rated 19 pct G/E down 4 from last week and vs 66 ly. Brazil soybean harvest advancing but new concerns about yield and quality due to rains. USDA 2021/22 soybean S/D today. S/C ratio favors corn.
Weekly US corn export sales est near 800-1,200 mt versus 1,448 last week. Argentina corn crop rated 24 pct G/E up 1 from last week and vs 61 ly. Brazil corn plantings slowed and due to rains. USDA 2021/22 corn S/D today. S/C ratio favors corn. Corn acres could be limited due to higher fertilizer and energy cost. Ukraine corn export 11 mmt with 4 mmt to China. USDA est Ukraine exports at 24 mmt vs 29 ly.
Matif wheat futures rallied largest one day gains in 10 years. There is no new crop Russia export offers. Last year Russia exported 10-12 mmt July- Sep. USDA 2021/22 S/D today. Weekly sales 150-850 mt.
On Thursday, Managed funds were net buyers of 10,000 SRW Wheat; net sold 6,000 contracts of Corn; sold 7,000 Soybeans; sold 3,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 1,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 20,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 334,000 Corn; net long 158,000 Soybeans; net long 62,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 112,000 Soyoil.
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