Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SK is down 5 cents and near 14.12. SMK is near 402.5. BOK is near 54.24. CK is down 1 cent and near 5.57. WK is down 4 cents and near 6.36. KWK is down 5 cents and near 5.96. US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is higher.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 115 yuan in soybeans, down 23 in Corn, down 15 in Soymeal, down 130 in Soyoil, and down 16 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 122 ringgit at 3,815 (basis June) at midsession on concerns over rising output and tapering demand.
A storm system will also promote another round of significant rain across the central and southern Corn Belt into Thursday. This evening’s run was particularly aggressive with a weather disturbance from Nebraska through the far northern Corn Belt Mar. 28 – 29.
In Argentina, occasional periods of meaningful shower and thunderstorm activity through the end of March will help to further reduce crop stress and improve overall crop conditions in the nation.
In Brazil, much of the nation will become drier-biased which will be beneficial for soybean harvesting, Safrinha corn planting, and late season crop development.
Trade estimates weekly US corn export sales near 300-750 mt versus 395 last week. Last weeks US corn export commit was near 59 mmt vs 28 last year. USDA goal is 66.0 vs 45.1. China commit is near 18.7 mmt with 5.6 in unknown. This week, China bought 2.2 mmt of US corn. This suggest USDA will need to increase US exports and China imports in April.
Trade estimates weekly US soybean export sales near 0-400 mt versus 350 last week. Last weeks US soybean export commit was near 60 mmt vs 34 last year. USDA goal is 61.2 vs 45.7. China commit is near 35.8 mmt with 2.2 in unknown. This is the time of the year when soybean buyers switch to Brazil. Brazil harvest is late. Vessel line up is near 16 mmt. Brazil has loaded 6.7 mmt so far in March.
Trade estimates weekly US wheat export sales near 150-500 mt versus 329 last week. Last weeks US wheat export commit was near 24.1 mmt vs 23.6 last year. USDA goal is 26.8 vs 26.2. USDA estimates global trade near 197.7 mmt vs 191.5 ly. Russia is 39 vs 34 ly, EU is 27 vs 38 ly. Australia is 22 vs 9 ly.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 5,000 Soybeans; 1,000 lots of soymeal, and 4,000 soyoil; and bought 2,000 corn. We estimate Managed Money net long 16,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 380,000 Corn; net long 150,000 Soybeans; net long 54,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 103,000 Soyoil.
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