Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is down 18 cents and near 17.26. SX is near 15.46. SMN is near 422.9. BON is near 79.67. Fridays high was 82.95. CN is unch and near 7.74. Overnight high was 7.82. CZ is near 7.23. WN is up 7 cents and near 10.78. KWN is up 8 cents and near 11.70. MWN is up 10 cents and near 12.32.
US stocks are again sharply lower. US Dollar is higher. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower.
Higher US inflation data continues to weigh on US equities and rally US Dollar. The Fed meets this week with a 50 basis point rate hike expected. Some do not rule out a 75 basis point rate hike. Some feel we have reached a flash point for US inflation. Ukraine war continues with increase heavy losses for both sides. No sign of new maritime Ukraine food exports corridor. Ukraine ports remain mined.
US Midwest 2 week weather outlook has a little bit for everyone. Some showers in next few day. Hot and dry rest of week. Ridge moves east then back west next weekend and could bring scattered showers for upper Midwest. Spain is hot. Black Sea, Argentina and Brazil are dry. India monsoon is off to a subpar start. World needs increase grain and vegoil supplies.
Soybean futures are lower. Weak equities and higher US Dollar may be weighing on soybean futures. Soyoil futures are on defense on talk of Indonesia palmoil exports and new China Covid lockdowns. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower.
US HRW harvest is underway. Most look for lower US HRW crop than USDA June guess. US 2022 HRS acres and crop should be down from average. USDA increase in Russia wheat exports raises many doubters. Weekly US exports should remain low.
Nearby corn bounced off recent lows and tested both the 20DMA and 50DMA and traded above the down trend line from the late April high. Strong domestic basis and a warm and dry 7 day US Midwest forecast offered support. 2nd week forecast is not as hot and dry which could limit new buying to new highs.
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