Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SF is up 1 cent and near 12.65. SMZ is near 372.1. BOZ is near 58.71. CZ is up 3 cents and near 5.73. WZ is up 19 cents and near 8.42. KWZ is up 20 cents and near 8.56. MWZ is up 20 cents and near 10.30.
US President will speak Tuesday on the economy. US Central Bank considering higher rates to slow inflation or keep accommodating to help slowing economies due to new Covid cases.
Short week with CBOT closed Thursday for holiday and Friday closes at noon. US along with Japan are considering releases Crude oil reserves. Russia and Ukraine tension on the rise.
US Midwest weather dry. EU and Black Sea dry. Argentina has rain in forecast. Brazil weather favorable.
KC wheat sharply higher. Wet Australia weather helping prices. Dry US spring also supportive. World wheat buyers short, buying only hand to mouth. No 2022 coverage. KC futures could test 9.00. End users may add to long futures to reduce risk going into the holidays. Demand is higher than supply. Trade estimate of US 2021/22 wheat carryout from 570-640 depending upon final exports.
Corn futures may be in a 5.40-6.00 range until more is known about US export demand and SA weather. China has been active in buying French feed wheat, Ukraine corn and US sorghum. Is US corn next? Trade estimates US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,290 mil bu vs USDA 1,493 due to higher demand.
SF found resistance near 13.00. 12.50 is key support. Soybean supported by positive US crush margins. US C IL soymeal basis +$30 and well above normal. Some feel US soybean yield could drop in Jan. Market still concerned long term about slow US export shipping pace and talk US carryout closer to 400. Trade estimates US 2022 soybean acres near 88.0, crop 4,540, carryout near 500.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
