Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. SK is down 2 cents and near 14.12. SMK is near 404.1. BOK is near 54.85. CK is up 1 cent and near 5.47. WK is down 1 cent and near 6.11. KWK is down 2 cents and near 5.46. US stocks are higher. US dollar is lower. Crude is higher.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are down roughly 15 cents; HRW down 20; HRS down 7; Corn is down 5 cents; Soybeans down 1 cent; Soymeal down $3.00, and; Soyoil up 35 points. Crushing margins are down 2 cents at $0.58 (July); Oil share up 1% at 39%.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 166 yuan in soybeans, down 2 in Corn, up 12 in Soymeal, down 374 in Soyoil, and down 332 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 175 ringgit at 3,688 (basis June) following rival vegoils.
Significant rain will continue in Argentina through Saturday. A period of drier conditions will then benefit fieldwork advancement in Argentina. Net drying in much of Brazil will continue. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is still expected to return to the drier areas of Brazil in early April but with resulting moisture that is below normal.
Last evening’s GFS model run was notably cooler in most U.S. crop areas east of the Rocky Mountains April 6 – 9. This solution is out of line and not expected. Temperatures will likely be above to well above average in this timeframe with a ridge of high pressure in the central U.S.
On Thursday, Managed funds were net sellers of 8,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold 20,000 Corn; net sold 13,000 Soybeans; bought 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net sold 12,000 lots of Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 330,000 Corn; net long 146,000 Soybeans; net long 58,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 88,000 Soyoil.
Soyoil futures are lower. World vegoil prices are lower. Talk Argentina soyoil works into US west coast. US Midwest weather is favorable. Brazil is dry, EU is dry, West Canada is dry.
USDA March report: Trade est corn stocks 7,767 vs 7,952 ly, soya 1,543 vs 2,255, wheat 1,278 vs 1,415. Trade est US 2021 corn acres near 93.2 mil vs 90.8 ly, soya 90.0 vs 83.1, all wheat 45.0 vs 44.3.
China has slowed nearby corn and soybean import buying. Buying new crop. China bought 60 panamax corn cargoes from Ukraine for Oct-Nov
Argentina soybean crop rated 7 pct G/E vs 31 ly. Argentina soy crop est near 44 mmt. Argentina corn harvest 7 pct vs 14 average. Crop is rated 26 pct G/E vs 22 last week.
Brazilian soybean export prices lower. No new China buying. 17 mmt soya vessels to load.
World wheat pieces continue to drop on lack of new export buying. US weather also negative. IGC EST World 2021 corn crop 1,193 mmt vs 1,139 this year, wheat 790 vs 747, SB 383 vs 361.
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