Written Commentary
Grains are lower. SN is down 2 cents and near 8.62. CN is down 2 cents and near 3.31. WN is down 3 cents and near 5.07. US stocks are lower. Crude is lower. Crude prices may be near levels that could increase SU production before demand increases. US Dollar is higher. Gold is higher.
Rains are forecasted for central US Midwest today and tomorrow. Rest of the week will be drier but with cooler temps. Weather remains dry next week with warmer temps. US south plains will be dry for harvest.
This week, USDA will update US/World supply and demand. Trade looks for US corn crop near 15,917 mil bu vs USDA 15.995 and soybean crop at 4,138 mil bu vs 4.125. Trade also looks for US 2019/20 corn carryout near 2,163 vs 2,098, soybean near USDA 580 and Wheat near USDA 978. Trade looks for US 2020/2 corn carryout near 3.356 vs USDA 3,318, soybean near 429 vs USDA 405 and wheat near USDA 909.
USDA rated the US 2020 corn crop 75 pct good/excellent. Best crops are in IA, MN, NE and WI. 5 pct of the crop is rated below trend, 38 pct at trend and 47 pct above trend. Some est US 2020 corn yield near 179.5 vs USDA 178.5. USDA rated the US 2020 soybean crop 72 pct good/excellent. Best crops are in IA, MN, NE, SD and WI. 8 pct of the crop is rated below trend, 43 pct at trend and 42 pct above trend. Some est US soybean yield near 51.0 vs USDA 49.8. 51 pct of the US winter wheat crop is rated good/ex. 82 pct of the spring wheat crop is rated good/ex.
Some still feel given the numbers the soybean futures market could be 20-25 cents from a seasonal high. Trade will watch to see if funds want to cover any of their record corn short. Most feel Dec corn is near season high. Black Sea weather forecast is dry. Still north hemisphere harvest will soon begin and large World supplies and slow export demand could limit the upside in Sep Chicago wheat near 5.30 and KC Sep wheat near 4.85.
On Monday, Managed funds were net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 8,000 Corn; net sold 4,000 Soybeans; net sold 1,000 Soymeal, and; was even Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 259,000 Corn; net long 21,000 Soybeans; net short 47,000 lots of Soymeal, and; are net long 14,000 Soyoil.
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