Written Commentary
Written by Marc Ostwald, ADMISI’s Global Strategist & Chief Economist
Lunar New Year & Japan holiday, start of Carnival to subdue trading; digesting UK RICS & Malaysia Q4 GDP, awaiting US Jobless Claims, IEA & OPEC oil market reports; EC Economic Forecasts; busy run of corporate earnings; ECB speakers, Mexico seen cutting rates; Italy/US auctions
US jobless claims: further falls expected, but still very high by any historical standards
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EVENTS PREVIEW
As the Lunar New Year holidays begin in East Asia and with Japan closed for National Day and Carnival kicking off in earnest in Europe (‘Weiberfastnacht’), trading is likely to be subdued, and the data run amounts to no more than the overnight UK RICS House Price survey and Malaysia’s Q4 GDP, with only US weekly jobless claims likely to attract any attention ahead. However the events and corporate earnings schedule is quite busy, with the IEA and OPEC monthly Oil Market Reports accompanying the EC’s Economic Forecasts update, some ECB speakers and a number of EM central bank policy meetings, though only the Banco de Mexico is seen making any changes, via way of a 25 bps rate cut to 4.0%. The corporate earnings has amongst others: AstraZeneca, Arcelor Mittal, Newcrest Mining, Pernod Ricard, Unicredit and Zurich Insurance, while across the pond the focus is likely to be on: Expedia, Kellogg, Kraft Heinz, Moslon Coors, Pepsico, Tyson Foods and Walt Disney. Govt bond supply comes via way of 3, 7 & 20-yr in Italy and 30-yr in the US.
U.S.A. – Weekly Jobless Claims
Weekly jobless claims have surprised on the downside in recent weeks, after the unwelcome surge in the first week of January. Initial Claims are expected to dip further to 758K from 779K, extending that trend, but still above the end November level of 716K and indeed the Covid-19 all-time high of 682K in 1982. Continued Claims should also continue to fall (consensus 4.420 Mln vs. prior 4.592 Mln), but as with Initial Claims remain very high by any historical standards.
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