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Macroeconomics: The Day Ahead for 1 December

  • Services PMIs top schedule as Japan’s Q3 CapEx & labour data, South Korean Trade and UK Nationwide House Prices are digested ahead of US Auto Sales, Canada’s labour report and Brazil Industrial Production; smattering of Fed speakers

EVENTS PREVIEW

Manufacturing PMIs/ISM dominate the statistical schedule to start the month, with Japan’s Q3 CapEx and Oct Unemployment data, South Korean Trade, UK Nationwide House Prices to digest ahead of US Auto Sales, Canada’s labour report and Brazil Industrial Production. The event schedule is very much dominated by Fed speakers, in their last opportunity to offer thoughts on the economy and policy outlook, before they enter next week’s ‘purdah period ahead of the December 12/13 policy meeting. The latter will probably be the highlight of the day, given that the run of Asian Manufacturing PMIs echoed the message from the ‘flash’ G7 and China NBS readings, and merely confirm that the sector remains in recession, though there were improvements vs October, most notably in China (50.7 vs. Oct 49.5), and some national “hard” data (such as the US and China) suggests the actual picture is perhaps not as grim as surveys suggest. Reaction to yesterday’s rather piecemeal and voluntary OPEC+ production cuts for Q1 has been unsurprisingly sceptical, given the pre-meeting tensions, and will put an even greater focus both on actual production levels (i.e. compliance) and inventories.

Next week brings Services PMIs, US Payrolls and run of other labour indicators, China Trade, Japan’s Tokyo CPI & Wages, UK BRC Retail Sales, OZ & Brazil Q3 GDP, German Trade, Orders and Production, along with Bank of Canada, RBA & RBI policy meetings, along with the BoE’s Q4 Financial Stability Report.

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