Written Commentary
EVENTS PREVIEW
It will be a rather underwhelming end to the week statistically with UK Retail Sales, Singapore Exports and Malaysia Q3 GDP to digest ahead of final Eurozone CPI, US Housing Starts and Canadian producer prices. A busy schedule of central bank speakers will be more policy oriented than yesterday, and LatAm markets await the outcome of the Argentine presidential election on Sunday. Next week will see some liquidity disruption from the US Thanksgiving holiday, with the data schedule highlights including flash G7 PMIs, US Home Sales metrics and Durable Goods Orders, German Ifo and numerous other surveys, as the UK awaits the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget Statement and PSNB data, Canada and Japan look to CPI, while China has the monthly Loan Prime Rate fixing (no change in rates expected). There will also be ECB and FOMC minutes; Swedish, CEE and EM rate decisions, and plenty more central bank speakers.
Eurozone CPI is not expected to be revised from the modest 0.1% m/m increase that brought headline down to 2.9%, while core remains sticky at 4.1% y/y. US Housing Starts are seen edging down 0.7% m/m after an unexpected 7.0% m/m jump in September, though the steep fall in yesterday’s NAHB Housing Index suggests stronger downside risks going forward as high for long rates weigh more heavily.
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