Written Commentary
- Ukraine war continues to cast very long and profoundly tragic shadow; digesting Shanghai extended lockdown, German Trade and retail federation food price warning, further outsized surge in Turkey inflation; awaiting US Factory Orders and Canada Q1 Business Outlook survey; smattering of central bank speakers, Euro Group meeting
- Week Ahead: entrenched Ukraine war dominates; light schedule of data, Fed and ECB minutes, RBA and RBI expected to hold, Poland NBP and Peru BCP to hike a further 50 bps; WASDE tops run of commodity reports, UN FAO Food Price Index also due; French presidential election first round
EVENTS PREVIEW
The war in Ukraine continues to rage, with Russia seemingly focussed on annexing the East and much of the Southern coastal region of the Ukraine, and is as willing as it was in Syria to commit and every atrocity to achieve its goals. Statsitically there is quite a busy day for a Monday with German Tarde, India’s Manufacturing and Turkish mega inflation data to digest, ahead of Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence and US Factory Orders. But perhaps more discussed will be the news that German Retailers Aldi and Rewe will be rsising food prices “significantly” as today, due to a sharp rise in input costs (food raw materials, energy & logistics) of between 20 and 50%, and the German Retail Federation (HDE) warning that nearly all supermarkets will follow suit with ‘double digit’ increases. Meanwhile in China (on holiday today and tomorrow), all of Shanghai’s 26 million population has been put on lockdown, amid increasing reports of food shortages developing, primarily due to delivery bottlenecks, and a good deal of social unrest, above all due to parents being separated from their children.
Recommended read:
Adam Tooze: The future of the dollar – Fin-Fi (finance fiction) and Putin’s war
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ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
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