Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SF is down 6 cents and near 12.68. SMZ is near 369.0. BOZ is near 58.76. CZ is down 2 cents and near 5.74. WZ is down 1 cent and near 8.44. KWZ is unch and near 8.62. MWZ is down 1 cent and near 10.22.
US President will speak today on the economy. US Central Bank has to decide on slowing inflation or being there to help if economy slows. Short week with CBOT closed Thursday for holiday and Friday closes at noon. US, Japan, S Korea and India are considering releases Crude oil reserves. Russia and Ukraine tension on the rise.
US Midwest dry. EU/Black Sea showers. Australia wet. Argentina showers. Brazil weather favorable. Dalian soybean, corn, palmoil, soyoil lower. Soymeal higher. China could help economy.
World wheat buyers short, buying only hand to mouth. No 2022 coverage. KC futures could test 9.00. Matif wheat futures new highs. Trade estimate of US 2021/22 wheat carryout from 570-640 depending upon final exports. USDA rated US winter wheat crop 44 pct G/E vs 46 last week. Corn harvest 95 pct. Soybean 95 pct.
Corn futures may be in a 5.40-6.00 range until more is known about US export demand and SA weather. Matif corn new highs. Ukraine corn crop 40 mmt. Trade watching shipments vs increase Russia tension. US corn exports 299 mil bu or down 18 pct from ly. Argentina export program reducing US. Trade estimates US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,290 mil bu vs USDA 1,493 due to higher demand.
SF found resistance near 13.00. 12.50 is key support. Soybean supported by positive US crush margins. US soybean exports 667 mil bu or down 27 pct ly. Talk China bought 25 US cargoes, half of normal needs. China soybean coverage now through December. Brazil could have new crop soybean in Jan for export. Matif rapeseed futures higher. Canada canola futures higher. Canada crop 12.8. Exports 5.5 vs 10.5 ly.
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