Mixed to Higher Grains Outlook

MORNING OUTLOOK

Grains are mixed to higher. SK is up 12 cents and near 14.14. SX is up 15 cents and near 1279. SMK is near 414.4. BOK is near 52.89. CK is down 1 cents and near 5.58. DZ is up 6 cents and near 4.90. WK is up 2 cents and near 6.13. KWK is down 1 cent and near 5.64. MWK is  up 2 cents and near 6.01. US stocks are higher. Crude is lower on talk of increase OPEC production.

For the week, SRW Wheat prices were down roughly 2 cents; HRW down 3; HRS down 14; Corn was up 10 cents; Soybeans up 5 cents; Soymeal up $6.00, and; Soyoil up 60 points. Crushing margins are up 15 cents at $0.64 (July); Oil share unchanged at 38%.

Chinese Ag futures (May) were on holiday. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 33 ringgit at 3,770 (basis June) at midsession following rival vegoils, tight supply forecasts.

Rain should fall in a timely manner across the Dakotas and parts of Nebraska to the Great Lakes region early next week. Rain will also fall in a timely manner in the southeastern states and Delta with rain expected during mid-week this week and again during the weekend. The southern half of the Great Plains will likely be driest during the next ten days to two weeks.

Argentina’s bottom line still looks very good for most of its summer crops. Harvest progress will be slowed late this week because of rain. Brazil’s bottom line will be one of good rainfall in Mato Grosso supporting Safrinha corn. Most other crop areas will continue to dry down raising moisture stress for many Safrinha corn crops from Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraguay to Sao Paulo.

New crop corn and soybeans continues to add premium after last weeks USDA report. This week USDA, will revise US and World supply and demand. Challenge will be the 2020/21 corn balance sheet. Will they lower South America crops, raise US demand and lower US carryout? Many have a US carryout closer to 1,100 mil bu vs USDA 1,502. They should lower South America soybean crops but most doubt the will lower US carryout below pipeline minimum of 120 mil bu.

Some doubt US farmers will increase corn acres given higher fuel and fertilizer cost and talk of a warm and dry summer. Some feel CK 5.55 and CZ 4.75 will be key support. Lower than expected USDA estimate of US 2021 acres helped push SX higher. SX support is 12.50. Some feel SX and BOZ is too cheap given talk of lower US 2021/22 soybean supplies and higher soyoil biofuel demand.

Wheat futures continue to trend lower due to lower World prices, mostly normal north hemisphere spring weather and talk that Russia is offering wheat for export and lower prices. USDA will issue its first by state US winter wheat crop ratings Monday. WK should find support near 5.90. Dry US north plains and west Canada weather is also supportive.

On Thursday, Managed funds were net sellers of 7,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 3,000 Corn; 8,000 Soybeans; 8,000 lots of Soymeal, and; 2,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 9,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 427,000 Corn; net long 166,000 Soybeans; net long 68,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 94,000 Soyoil.