Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is up 2 cents and near 16.33. SMK is near 467.4. BOK is near 72.78. CK is down 5 cents and near 7.55. CZ is near 7.04. WK is down 12 cents and near 10.33. KWK is down 11 cents and near 10.71. MWK is down 8 cents and near 11.03.
US stocks are lower. More US Fed Governors hawkish comments offers resistance to US stocks. GS forecast US recession and stocks down 20 pct in 2023. Crude is near $103. Gold, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher. Copper and silver are lower.
World traders are looking for more US, UK and G7 sanctions on Russia today. So far many feel sanctions are not yet stopping Russia invasion of Ukraine. There were reports that some Ukraine sunseed plants may have been damaged. Matif rapeseed futures higher. New crop at new contract highs. CONAB out tomorrow with crop updates. USDA April S/D Friday.
Most look for little change in US/World April soybean supply and demand. Some feel they could drop South America soybean crop 8 mmt or 300 mil bu. Some look for China to be back from holiday and could increase US soybean buying. Some feel USDA could increase US soybean exports 25 mil bu and lower carryout from 285 to 260. SK testing 50 DMA near 16.20. Resistance is near 20 DMA near 16.61.
Corn futures are a lower in front of weekly US export sales and USDA April US/World supply and demand. Trade remains concern over final Ukraine corn exports. They may export only 19.5 mmt vs USDA 27.5. US census corn exports are up 190 mil bu to date vs inspections. Some feel US 2021/22 corn exports could be closer to 2,700 vs USDA 2,500. This does not include any switch from Ukraine buyers to US including China. USDA estimate of US 2022 corn acres support CZ. Wet US east Midwest and south forecast could delay corn plantings there.
Wheat futures are lower in front of weekly export sales and USDA April US/World supply and demand report. Some feel slow export pace could increase US carryout 25 mil bu. World wheat trade matrix is a mess. Drop in Black Sea wheat exports is steepest yoy drop since 1908. Trade is concerned that Black Sea 2022/23 wheat exports may be only 22-23 mmt vs USDA est of 2021/22 52 mmt. US south plains April and May forecast is warm and dry which could send KWK 60-80 cents over WK vs current spread of 36. Some feel KWK could test 11.50 next week.
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