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New Month, Ags Are Lower

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

New Month. Grains are lower. SF is down 11 cents and near 13.31. SMF is near 419.8. BOF is near 52.26. CH is down 1 cent and near 4.81. WH is down 4 cents and near 5.94. KWH is down 6 cents and near 6.36. MWH is down 6 and near 7.23. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower due to disappointing OPEC news. Gaza ceasefire expired. There were no SMZ and BOZ deliveries, 221 CZ and 405 WZ.

 

SF is near 13.31. SMH dropped below 420 support. There remains more concern that a normal 2024 Argentina crop could lower US crush demand. For now, US monthly crush are near monthly record. Weekly US soybean export sales were 69 mil bu. Total commit is down 17 pct vs ly. USDA goal estimates a 12 pct drop. There is talk that annual China imports could increase to 105-108 mmt. Monthly renewable fuel use is up 42 pct vs ly. Still fact soyoil futures failed to react suggest part of production could be from diverse range of sources and use may have peaked for now. Argentina soybean crop is 44 pct planted and crop is est near 50 mmt vs USDA 48 and 25 ly. Some estimate Brazil crop near 155 mmt vs USDA 163.

CH is near 4.81. There remains uncertainty over Black Sea corn exports either due to weather or politics. US does have  window for new export. There was talk that China Sino Grain may have been given approval to buy more corn. Import sales to date is near 19 mmt. Brazil continues to satisfy China corn needs. USDA goal is 23 mmt. Some now estimate total imports between 30-40 mmt mostly JFM. World panamax freight rates have doubled over last few weeks. Argentina corn is 32 pct planted. Crop rating dropped from 29 pct G/E vs 26 last week. Crop estimated near 55 mmt vs 34 ly. Weekly US corn export sales were 76 mil bu and above expectations. Total commit is up 33 pct vs ly  and USDA estimate of up 25 pct. US sorghum commit is up 62 pct vs USDA goal. Some estimate Brazil crop near 123 mmt vs USDA 129.

Wheat futures are lower. There remain some uncertainty over potential Ukraine and Russia wheat exports due to weather and politics. Russia export prices remain a discount to other exporters. US south Plains forecast is warm and dry. Weekly US wheat export sales were 23 mil bu and above trade expectations. Total commit is near 466 mil bu vs 494 ly. US SRW commit is already 74 pct of USDA goal.

 

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