Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
New Month. Grains are mixed. SN is up 6 cents and near 16.90. SX is near 15.18. SMN is near 418.2. BON is near 77.51. CN is down 2 cents and near 7.51. CZ is near 7.09. WN is up 6 cents and near 10.93. KWN is up 9 cents and near 11.75. MWN is up 7 cents and near 12.55.
US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, copper, sugar and cotton are higher.
US central and south plains and Midwest forecast calls for normal rains. US north plains wet. Could be some needed rains on France and Germany. Black see, Brazil, Argentina and north China plains remain dry.
Wheat futures trade sharply lower on Tuesday. Lower energy and higher Dollar may have triggered month end long liquidation with no resting buy orders. US weekly exports remain slow. Egypt is tendering for wheat including Ukraine but shipped from either Poland, Romania and Baltics. Trade still waiting for news if Russia will allow for Ukraine food exports. EU increased Russia sanctions. EU/UK agreed to prevent Lloyds insuring Russian oil cargoes. US spring wheat plantings 72 pct vs 97 ly. ND 59 vs 97 average. There is 3.0 million SW acres not yet planted. USDA rated US winter wheat crop 29 pct G/E vs 28 last week.
Corn futures followed limit losses in wheat. US corn demand is increasing. Trade still waiting for news if Russia will allow for Ukraine food exports. Trade will await a June 8 meeting with Russia and Turkey concerning Ukraine exports. EU increased Russia sanctions. 86 pct of US corn crop is planted 94 last year. ND is 56 vs 92 last year. Some feel as much as 1.0 million corn acres may not get planted and in prevent plant. US soils are mostly adequate for a 178.0 yield. Brazil remains dry. Brazil Sep corn futures are 1.00 over US Sep near 7.21. US corn export to date are 17 pct below last year but census exports are 266 mil bu above US inspections. Mostly to Canada. NOAA 30 day US forecast has normal rains, below temps north above south.
Soybean futures were sharply lower on Tuesday. US Midwest rains and fact there has been not new announcement of new US soybeans to China for 3 weeks weighed on prices. US soybean exports are down 13 pct versus last year. Nearby soybean board crush margins dripped to 8 month low and near 86 cents. Inverse in futures has Aug margin 123 cents, Sep 180 cents and Oct 197 cents. 66 pct of US soybeans are planted vs 83 ly. ND 23 vs 86 ly. MN 55 vs 99 ly. 4.3 million soybean acres are unplanted in ND and MN.
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