Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. SX is down 4 cents and near 12.82. SMZ is near 340.9. BOZ is near 56.11. CZ is down 5 cents and near 5.12. WZ is down 3 cents and near 6.84. KWZ is down 2 cents and near 6.84. MWZ is down 5 cents and near 8.73. US stocks are higher before US inflation CPI data. US Dollar is higher. Gold is lower. Crude is higher.
3 of 12 US gulf elevators are operational or soon will be. No new word on the rest. Dry US 2 week Midwest weather forecast should speed up maturation and harvest. Top in yields. US gulf tropical storm could bring heavy rains to TX coast and LA.
There was not enough bullish news from USDA to trigger new fund buying corn, beans or wheat. Dalian soybean, soymeal, corn futures are higher. Palmoil/soyoil are lower. China port closed.
World Aug soy +meal exports were 11.7 mmt vs 13.1 ly. YTD 155.3 vs 159.3. USDA goal 176.3 vs 175.1 ly
For now, analyst will use USDA 93.3 mil corn acres and 87.2 beans but they may not increase. Most will use USDA 176.3 corn, 50.6 soybean yields. Dry end to summer has some near 173.0 and 49.5. Most analyst est US 20/21 corn carryout near USDA 1,187, but 21/22 near 1,200 vs USDA 1,408. Most analyst est US 20/21 soybean carryout near USDA 175, but 21/22 near 150 vs USDA 185. Most analyst est US 21/22 wheat carryout near 565 vs USDA 615. Key lower imports higher demand.
Key for rest of 2021 and 2022 will be US harvest yields and farmer selling versus consumer buying. Also trade will begin to price South America 2022 crop weather. North 2/3 Brazil is warm/dry. USDA est Brazil 2022 soybean crop at 144 mmt vs 137 ly, Argentina 52.0 vs 46 last year. USDA est Brazil 2022 corn crop 118 mmt vs 86 ly. Argentina 53 vs 50. Wheat will begin to trade 2022 crop outlook. US HRW is dry. Russia crop 85 vs 72. Canada 35 vs 23.
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