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Outside-day Down Bearish Development


Cocoa prices are having a volatile start to the second quarter, but continue having trouble getting past near-term demand concerns. Although there have been bullish developments on the supply side of the market, cocoa may see further downside price action due to bearish demand concerns. A large selloff in the Eurocurrency put early carryover pressure on the cocoa market, as Europe accounts for over one-third of global cocoa processing without a domestic source for beans.


Coffee continues to push higher with the market up to the highest level since March 9th. While there may be some questions on near-term demand, coffee has the bullish supply set-up to move further to the upside. The market has moved up for the fifth positive daily result in a row.


May cotton rallied yesterday for the highest closed since March 30. The market drew support from higher crude oil prices and gains in the equity markets. Wheat, corn, and soybeans were also up on concerns Black Sea region supplies will be interrupted, and this may have lent support to cotton as well. Worsening drought conditions in West Texas and Oklahoma continue to lend support.


While it received plenty of carryover support from key outside markets, sugar prices have broken out of their recent consolidation zone to the upside. Sugar was able to overcome bearish supply news as well, and that can help prices maintain upside momentum this week. May sugar rallied to a new 4-week high.

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