Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is up 9 cents and near 16.78. SMK is near 477.6. BOK is near 73.84. CK is down 4 cents and near 7.50. WK is down 16 cents and near 10.81. Overnight high was 11.06. KWK is down 10 cents and near 10.78. Overnight high was 10.97. MWK is down 3 cents and near 10.75. Overnight high was 10.87.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher.
May soybeans is higher overnight and near 16.78. Support is near 16.58. Resistance is near 17.00. Soybean futures are supported by strong US basis and record pace of US soybean crush. Some feel lower South America soybean supply could add to US soymeal demand. Soyoil is supported by talk of lower sunoil supply and higher biofuel demand. Brazil soybean export basis remains at historical high levels. Some feel US 2021/22 soybean export could be 80 mil bu higher than USDA. This suggest a carryout of 205 mil bu vs USDA 285.
May corn is lower overnight and near 7.50. Support is near 7.24. Resistance is near 7.67. Corn futures are supported by strong US basis and potential for higher US export demand. Some feel lower South America and Ukraine supply could add to US corn export demand. Some feel US 2021/22 corn export could be 300 mil bu higher than USDA. This suggest a carryout of 1,070 mil bu vs USDA 1,440. Trade will be watching USDA March 31 acreage report.
May Chicago wheat is lower overnight and near 10.81. Support is near 10.50. Resistance is near 11.00. Wheat futures continue to be pushed and pulled based on the latest news on the Ukraine War. Hope of a ceasefire offers strong overhead resistance. Rains over US HRW crop areas also offers resistance. Support is from lower Black Sea exports and potential for drier US south plains spring weather. Some feel US 2022/23 wheat crop could be near 1,850 mil bu. Assuming demand near 2,070, US 2022/23 could be near 515 mil bu.
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