Written Commentary
Morning Outlook
Happy Friday. Grains are mixed. SF is up 1 cents and near 11.69. SMF is near 388.4. BOF is near 38.20. CH21 is down 1 cent and near 4.25. WH21 is down 1 cent and near 5.83. KWH21 is unchanged and near 5.49. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. Copper is higher.
OPEC production deal helping US stocks and Crude prices. Market still waiting for US stimulus.
US Dollar lower. In Dollar terms, US soybean are trading at 10.53, US corn 3.83 and US HRW 4.99.
There continues to be rumors of China buying US 2021 new crop soybeans. May be April US corn.
Tight global vegoil supplies,higher India/China demand and Indonesia tax pushed World vegoil prices higher.
Some essential US workers could get Covid virus vaccine in December.
Bulls hope overall dryness in parts of South America and US plains will support/rally prices.
Argentina soybean crop 48% planted vs 57 ave. Argentina corn 35% planted vs 49 ly. Crop 34% G/E vs 45 ly
EU, Matif, Russia and Australia wheat prices lower. Canada increased their supply.
US weekly soybean export sales were 407 mt. Total commit is 52.3 mmt vs 25.9 last year.
US weekly corn export sales were 1,371 mt. Total commit is 38.3 mmt vs 14.6 last year. US farmer still not selling. Ethanol demand still down due to Covid.
US weekly wheat export sales were 446 mt. Total commit is 18.5 mmt vs 16.4 last year.
Soybean, corn and wheat futures now up to money flow, weather and demand for US 2021 exports. Bulls hope 11.42 SF, 380 SMF, 414 CH and 5.74 WH will prove to be good support.
On Thursday, Managed funds were net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 10,000 Corn; and 13,000 Soybeans; 4,000 lots of Soymeal, and; 7,000 lots of Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 268,000 Corn; net long 185,000 Soybeans; net long 65,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 106,000 Soyoil.
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