Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SK is up 8 cents and near 13.90.. SX is up 8 cents and near 12.59. SMK is near 402.3. BOK is near 52.29. CK is up 2 cents and near 5.71. CZ is up 3 cents and near 4.99. WK is up 6 cents and near 6.34.KWK is up 2 cents and near 5.81. MWK is up 2 cents and near 6.45. Asian soybean and vegoil prices are higher. Soymeal lower. Commodity prices trying to recover after China suggested commodity prices were too high. US financial markets looking for positive CPI data today.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 42 yuan in soybeans, up 4 in Corn, down 62 in Soymeal, down 50 in Soyoil, and down 144 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 25 ringgit at 3,675 (basis June) at midsession with gains limited by rising inventories, output.
US Midwest 6-10 day forecast suggest below normal temps and rains. Brazil and west Europe are dry.
Brazil thunderstorm activity through the next seven days will still provide some relief from recent dryness. Conditions in Argentina will still be mostly good.
US corn plantings are near 4 pct vs 2 last week and 3 average. Cold temps should not slow plantings. USDA rated US 2021 winter wheat crop 53 pct good/ex vs 53 last week and 62 last year. US spring wheat planting are near 11 pct versus 3 last week and 6 average.
Weekly US corn exports were 62 mil bu, soybean 12 and wheat 16. Slow exports weighed on spreads. China March soybean imports were near 7.7 mmt Oct-March imports 47 mmt. USDA Oct-Sep 100 mmt. China weekly soybean crush dropped to 1.3 mmt. Margins and meal sales down. ASF fears continue.
Malaysian March production was 1.42 mmt, stocks up 11 pct to 1.45 mmt. Both higher than expected. Brazil soybean basis finally firming, Soybean vessel line up 12.8 mmt with 6 mmt loaded so far in April. Food inflation rising in Argentina. Higher prices could forces slowdown in beef exports. EU rapeseed crops may have been damaged due to freezing temps. EU weather dry and cold.
US domestic soybean crush demand strong with basis firming. US soybean exports slowing
Brazil corn areas remain dry. Some are lowering estimates of final crop. China Jan-March corn imports 6.7 mmt. This suggest total imports could exceed USDA 24 mmt.
Matif wheat futures lower. Cold EU temps may be stressing the wheat crop. US/Canada plains dry. USDA increase in World wheat usage and drop in end stocks supportive to prices.
On Monday, Managed funds were net sellers of 9,000 contracts of SRW Wheat, 11,000 contracts of Corn; 12,000 Soybeans; 6,000 lots of soyoil, and bought 1,000 soymeal. We estimate Managed Money net long 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 426,000 Corn; net long 136,000 Soybeans; long 59,000 Soymeal, and; net long 65,000 Soyoil.
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