Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is down 5 cents and near 14.07. SMK is near 402.6. BOK is near 54.69. CK is down 5 cents and near 5.33. WK is down 2 cents and near 6.40. KWK is up 1 cent and near 6.06. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Most commodities are lower. Risk off.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are down roughly 13 cents; HRW down 21; HRS down 10; Corn is down 11 cents; Soybeans down 18 cents; Soymeal down $15.00, and; Soyoil up 235 points. Crushing margins are up 12 cents at $0.72 (July); Oil share up 2% at 39%.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 8 yuan in soybeans, down 17 in Corn, up 10 in Soymeal, up 136 in Soyoil, and up 262 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 66 ringgit at 4,126 (basis May) a 13 year high still supported by tight supplies, rival vegoils.
In Argentina, some improvement in soil moisture is still expected in the next two weeks. Argentina corn rating down 8 to 17 pct G/E. Argentina soybean crop rating down to 6 pct G/E. In Brazil, conditions in center west production areas will still be wetter than preferred while net drying will continue farther south in Rio Grande do Sul. Brazil 1st corn crop est near 23.5 mmt and lowest in 30 years. Conad est 2nd crop +2.8 mmt. Central Brazil corn planting only 43 pct vs 82 average.
A significant and important precipitation event is still expected tonight through Sunday from the Hard Red Winter Wheat Region into the southwestern Corn Belt and northern Delta. Last evening’s GFS model run was then notably aggressive with a follow-up weather disturbance shown to promote significant precipitation from Kansas through Illinois.
There is an about 60% chance of a transition from La Niña to neutral conditions during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2021, between April and June, a U.S. government weather forecaster said.
US corn export commit is near 2,343 mil bu vs 1,106 ly. China is 736 with 229 in unknown. USDA goal is 2,600. Soybean commit is near 2,220 versus 1,258 ly. China is 1,313 with 80 in unknown. USDA goal is 2,250. Wheat commit is near 886 mil bu vs 868 ly. USDA goal is 985 vs 965 ly.
On Thursday, Managed funds were net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 15,000 Corn; bought 5,000 Soybeans; sold 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 6,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 17,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 351,000 Corn; net long 165,000 Soybeans; net long 52,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 134,000 Soyoil.
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