Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SU is up 6 cents and near 14.51. SX is near14.29. SMU is near 399.9. BOU is near 66.30. CU is down 13 cents and near 6.69. CZ is near 6.61. WU is up 11 cents and near 9.47. WU dropped below Friday’s low and tested 9.26 before bouncing back. KWU is up 5 cents and near 10.03. MWU is up 3 cents and near 10.74.
US stocks are higher. S&P is testing 20 DMA. US Dollar is lower and continuing trend from June 15 high. Crude is lower.
Over the next 2-3 weeks there will be showers around the Midwest favoring E KS, to KY and S IN. Showers could be lighter in IA, N IL, WI and MI. Mean center of the ridge will be in the SW.
This week is month end and quarter end plus just for good measure a key USDA acreage and June 1 stocks report. Trade estimates US June 1 wheat stocks near 655 mil bu vs 845 ly, corn stocks near 4,343 mil bu vs 4,111 ly and soybean stocks 965 vs 769 ly. Key will be pct corn and soybean on farm and off farm.
USDA will also update US planted acres by crop. Wet spring may have reduced corn and wheat acres but raised soybeans. Trade estimates US corn acres near 88.8 mil vs 89.5 in March and 93.3 ly, soybean acres near 90.4 mil vs 90.9 in March and 87.2 ly and all wheat acres at 47.0 vs 47.3 in March and 46.7 ly. US spring wheat 10.8 vs 11.2 in March and 11..4 ly.
Nearby world wheat futures fell to their lowest weekly close since the first week of the Ukraine war. A fast US harvest pace an early start to the European harvest, rising private estimates of Russian and Ukraine crops, more political talk of export corridors from Ukraine, and general fears of worldwide economic slowdown/recession, all contributed to volume risk-off selling. Volume consumer demand is starting to surface (Algeria, Tunisia, Saudi, Bangladesh, Pakistan).
CBOT corn has dropped almost 100 cent from June 17 high on a mix of better US weather, recession fears, and a early start to Brazil’s 2nd crop corn harvest. Despite reports of heatwaves Dalian corn futures fell back to pre- Ukraine war levels. Matif closed at 11-week lows as France got good rains. Increase volatility shows that for the next 2 months, price movement will be determined by US weather.
The CBOT soy complex bounced Friday but still ended the week with losses. Drop linked to demand concerns rather than supply. Recession fears increasingly took hold of market sentiment. Collapse in Chinese markets fueled global demand fears. Indonesian palmoil stocks rose to their highest level since records began in 2016. G7 meeting will press for temporary waivers on biofuel mandates. US outstanding soybean export commitments are record large, but China record meal stocks and negative crush margins are asking questions about Chinese demand.
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