Written Commentary
Good morning,
NY was closed yesterday for Martin Luther King holiday but London was open and pushed higher in relatively thin volume. The market was strong from the opening with the first print up $1.40 with good market on opening buying noted which saw prices improve another $4 within the first 5 minutes of the session. In fact the whole day’s range was, virtually, seen during this period with prices soon dropping back after this initial buying abated. However, prices continued to slowly improve again reaching the highs of the day late afternoon. Prices eventually settled $5.70 higher and at their highest level since the middle of December. The HK also improve $1 to end at +10.30v while the KQ was $1.70 firmer finishing at +10.30 also. Yesterday strength could push the HH WP over $100 for the first time in many months when NY opens this morning.
As of the 15th January 504 Indian mills had produced a total of 15.14 million tonnes of sugar. This is some 5.7% higher than the same time last year when 487 mills had produced 14.28 million tonnes. According to reports about 1.7 million tonnes of sugar has been exported during the first three months of the 2021/22 season with another 700k tonnes expected to be shipped during January. It is estimated a total of around 3.9 million tonnes have been sold for export and the mills are in no hurry to sell more unless prices improve. ISMA are likely to release their second estimate for total production for the current season at the end of January. They put total production at 30.5 million tonnes in their last estimate. Current harvest data would suggest they may increase this estimate.
This morning NY gapped higher opened 19 points higher as it attempted to catch up with London’s gains yesterday. Prices continued to improve and are currently 25 points firmer. The HK is 5 points firmer at +28 while the KN is 4 points firmer at +21. In early London trading the HK and KQ are unchanged at +10.30. This sees the HH WP at 98.70 and the KK WP at 94.30. The macro is mixed this morning with crude higher with Brent hitting its highest level since 2014. Grains/soya are mostly lower while the USD Index is slightly firmer. The strength of the energy markets and white sugar is likely to see raw sugar improve further. While production is good in Indian and Thailand it remains to be seen on how much the Brazilian CS cane crop can recover despite the good rains received recently.
Contact the ADMISI Sugar Desk team:
Phone: +44(0) 20 7716 8598
Email: admisi.sugar@admisi.com
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2022 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
