COCOA
While there is general agreement that cocoa demand will improve once the global economy recovers from the COVID pandemic, the market will remain vulnerable to virus flare-ups and vaccine setbacks. With global risk sentiment turning negative as well, and cocoa prices may have trouble regaining upside momentum. Supply backlog from slow demand in 2020 still an issue.
COFFEE
Coffee prices continue to have trouble overcoming near-term demand issues and are close to retesting the early March lows. The market has a bullish longer-term supply outlook to provide support, however, and may be close to finding its footing.
COTTON
May cotton remains in a short-term downtrend and experienced the lowest close since February 3. A move under the March 10 low would suggest a continued break to 80.70. The dollar was higher yesterday, with the June Dollar Index reaching its highest level since May 9 and the sharp drop in crude oil is also a bearish force for cotton.
SUGAR
Sugar prices continue to be pressured by weakness in key outside markets, but a “turnaround Tuesday” could indicate that bullish supply factors are starting to underpin prices. Sugar is showing some early signs that it is closing in on a near-term low.
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