Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
TGIF. Grains are lower. CBOT closed Monday for holiday. SH is down 4 cents and near 13.72. SMH is near 408.6. BOH is near 58.17. CH is up 1 cent and near 5.89. WH is down 3 cents and near 7.43. KWH is down 8 cents and near 7.51. MWH is down 12 cents and near 8.83.
US stocks are higher in front of Bank earnings. US Dollar is mixed. Crude is higher. Copper and sugar are lower. Gold, coffee, cocoa and cotton are higher. Goldman Sachs looks for higher 2022 commodity prices as supply issue have not been resolved and demand continues higher. Looks for gains near 16 pct.
Dalian soybean and corn futures were higher. Soymeal, soyoil, palmoil and rapeseed oil lower. S Brazil and N Argentina still forecast for rains next week. Argentina hot/dry before extended forecast turns warm and dry for Paraguay, S Brazil and N Argentina LH Jan-March.
IGC increased World wheat crop 4 mmt, dropped corn 5 mmt and soybean 12 mmt.
China Dec soybean imports 8.8 mmt. YOY 96.5, down 3 pct vs ly. Oct-Dec 22 mmt down 12 pct. China 2022 goal is to increase soybean production 40 pct to 23 mmt by 2025 vs 16 mmt now. US soybean export commit down 24 pct vs ly. USDA down 9 pct. USDA waiting for SA crop data. SH is near 13.72 lowest since Jan 7 14.17. Rosario EX est Argentina soy crop 40 mmt vs USDA 46. Argentina exports 40 pct of World soymeal trade and 50 pct of World soyoil trade.
Trade estimates NOPA December soybean crush near 185 mil bu vs 179 Nov and 183 last year. Some estimates of Brazil soybean crop near 134 mmt vs USDA 138. Could help US exports.
CH near 5.89 and 4 week low. Argentina corn rated 23 G/E vs 40 lw. Rosario crop 48 vs USDA 54. Some estimate Brazil corn crop near at 113 mmt vs USDA 115. Could help US exports. Matif corn futures 6 week low. Following lower wheat. Ukraine cyber-attack on Gov website.
KWH lower. WH 2 month low. No US wheat to Iraq. Matif 3 month low. N Africa dry. US dry Australia wheat futures sharply lower. Increase south hemisphere wheat crops negative.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
