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Trend Still Up For Coffee

COCOA

Cocoa’s 3-day rally from Tuesday’s 3 1/2 week low lifted the market back towards the early September highs and more than 350 points above their 2021 low from mid-July. While near-term demand concerns continue to weigh on prices (particularly with Asia), a much more positive longer-term demand outlook has helped cocoa finish the third quarter on an upbeat note.

COFFEE

Coffee prices had a subdued finish to the third quarter, but have posted a “higher low” for eight sessions in a row. Drier than normal conditions since last year combined with the prospect of a La Nina weather event have been key factors with reducing the market’s expectation for upcoming Brazilian production, not only for the upcoming 2022/23 season but also for their 2023/24 season as well.

COTTON

With drier weather next week for Texas, a lower close today for December cotton after closing higher for the 8th straight session and trading to a new contract high for the 5th straight session would be a key reversal and a bearish signal. The nearby contract has traded to its highest level since September 2011.

SUGAR

While sugar was unable to avoid a monthly loss during September, it will start the new month and quarter at the top end of its recent consolidation zone. March sugar was able to shake off early pressure and climb up to a new 3 1/2 week high yesterday.

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