Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is unch and near 16.92. SX is near 15.26. SMN is near 441.8. BON is near 83.90. CN is up 6 cents and near 8.18. CZ is near 7.54. WN is up 12 cents and near 11.03. KWN is up 7 cents and near 11.61. MWN is up 6 cents and near 12.01.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher.US Dollar is at 20 year high. Crude is higher. Copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher.
Russia advance on south Ukraine export ports could limit Ukraine corn exports. Despite the fact US Dollar is making new highs, demand for US corn is increasing at new highs, soybeans for US crush and after August 1 US soybean exports. US soybean crush highest since 2014. Soyoil as pct of crush is approaching highest level since 1998. US weather supportive to wheat.
Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil, rapeseed oil and palmoil were higher. Argentina sunoil is near 1.90 to 2.10. Winnipeg canola is near 1.20. Despite near record soybean and soyoil futures it does not seem that prices are slowing demand for US soybeans. Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated at 250-800 mt old crop and 250-750 new.
July corn and Dec corn futures are making new highs. Ukraine is out of the corn export market. Central Brazil is the driest in 17 years. Some est Brazil corn crop closer to 108 mmt vs USDA 116.0. Argentina corn crop is rated only 18 pct G/E. Weekly US corn export sales are est near 900-1,600 mt old crop and 800-1,250 mt new. US Midwest forecast is wet which could delay plantings. US ethanol margins have turned positive at 8.17 CN! New contract highs does not seem to be rationing US corn demand. Corn option open interest is increasing.
US south plains rains could be confined to east. Wet US north plains and east Canada prairie and dry west Canada prairie weather should help push KWN and MWN higher. Russia wheat export pace remains below USDA goal. It would appear that will be more demand for EU new crop wheat. New crop Matif wheat is making new highs. Some now estimate India wheat crop 100-105 mmt vs USDA 109 and domestic demand near 107-110. Some look for higher wheat prices to ration demand. Range of guesses for US 2022 wheat crop is 1,740 to 1,960. Most look for USDA to drop HRW crop ratings on Monday. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 150-575 mt.
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