Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
USDA report day. Grains are mixed. SN is down 10 cents and near 17.58. SX is near 15.70. SMN is near 426.1. BON is near 81.75. CN is down 6 cents and near 7.67. CZ is near 7.11. WN is down 5 cents and near 10.66. Overnight high was 10.81. KWN is down 2 cents and near 11.51. Overnight high was 11.63. MWN is up 3 cents and near 12.27. Overnight high was 12.32.
US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is marginally higher. Crude is unch and near $121. Gold, copper, silver, coffee, and sugar are lower. Trade awaiting US CPI report and USDA report.
Rains are forecast for the rest of this week across much of US Midwest with temps cooler than normal. Next week looks warmer and drier. EU is dry. Argentina is dry. Canada is wet. E Ukraine and Russia are dry.
Soybeans prices have tested 17.84 this week on strong US domestic basis and next week warm and dry weather. China remains the biggest short in the soybean market. Aug 1 Brazil may be out of the soybean export market. Supply challenges and Ukraine war continues to add to inflation worries. USDA report day with most looking for little changes despite talk of higher US soybean export demand. Dalian soybeans, palmoil and soyoil were lower. Soymeal was higher.
Corn futures are also lower. USDA report day with most looking for little changes despite talk of higher US corn export demand. Lower South America corn supply and reduced Ukraine export should increase demand for US corn. Dalian corn was lower. US buyers continue to struggle buying corn. Basis is strong and spreads have inverted.
USDA may not change US/World wheat numbers today but there is talk of lower Black Sea exports and potential for lower US, Canada, Argentina and EU 2022 crops.
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