Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Quarter end. Month end. USDA report day. Grains are higher. SK is down up 6 cents and near 13.73. SMK is near 399.9. BOK is near 51.10. CK is up 1 cent and near 5.40. WK is up 1 cent and near 6.03. KWK is up 1 cent and near 5.60. US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. US considering raising taxes to pay for large infrastructure plan. US virus cases on rise again.
For the month, SRW Wheat prices are down roughly 57 cents; HRW down 73; HRS down 34; Corn is down 12 cents; Soybeans down 27 cents; Soymeal down $17.00, and; Soyoil up 10 points. Crushing margins are down 10 cents $0.56 (July); Oil share up 1% at 37%.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 21 yuan in soybeans, down 26 in Corn, down 7 in Soymeal, down 272 in Soyoil, and down 182 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 31 ringgit at 3,543 (basis June) at midsession awaiting government data updates.
Conditions in Argentina are still expected to be favorable the next two weeks. In Brazil, last evening’s GFS model run still showed rain gradually returning to northern production areas Friday into next week which will be beneficial and lead to some increase of topsoil moisture.
Last evening’s GFS model run showed a couple of notable changes in week 1 of the outlook. There was a significant decrease of precipitation from the central Delta through the central Corn Belt and a significant increase of precipitation in the Northern Plains for the Monday into next Tuesday timeframe.
China soybean crush margins have turned negative. World vegoil prices continue to slide lower.
Talk of lower Argentina crop vs USDA. Brazil corn prices higher and could increase Argentina imports.
US wheat futures lowest since December. Now up to 2021 weather. Russia export policy still not clear
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 9,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold 25,000 Corn; net sold 16,000 Soybeans; were net even in Soymeal, and; net sold 17,000 lots of Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 11,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 339,000 Corn; net long 116,000 Soybeans; net long 58,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 58,000 Soyoil.
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