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USDA Report Day, Mixed Start to Grains


USDA report day. Grains are mixed. Trade trying to factor in report US will release record SPR supplies. SK is down 3 cents and near 16.60. SMK is near 474.1. BOK is near 71.38. CK is down 1 cent and near 7.36. WK is up 1 cent and near 10.28. KWK is up 4 cents near 10.48. MWK is up 11 cents and near 10.69.

US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is sharply lower. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa and sugar are lower. USDA Hog report friendly futures.

US could announce release of 180 million barrels of SPR crude reserves. This would equal 1 million per day for several months. US uses 20 million barrels per day. There is 588 million barrels in reserve.

Since early March, US central Midwest, Delta and SE has seen above normal rains. Delta spring plantings could be delayed.  There is more rain forecasted there. Parts of NE, W KS, OK panhandle and TX has been drier than normal. Most of US south plains will see below normal rains and above temps. EU has turned cold. Could delay spring plantings. Prices favor more oilseed less corn acres. Since early March corn futures have rallied 70 cents while soybean futures have been mostly sideways. This has dropped soybean/corn ratio from 2.45 to 2.21. This could favor more US corn acres vs soybeans vs todays USDA estimate.

Brazil soybean harvest near 75 pct. Farmer has increase cash sales. Argentina is limiting sales of 15 liters pf diesel per customer. This could delay corn and soybean harvest. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 400-1,400 mt. Canada canola futures continue lower. Dalian soybean futures were higher, soyoil and soymeal were also higher. US Feb soybean crush is est near 175.2 mil bu vs 164.3 ly and second highest Feb ever.

Corn and wheat futures rallied on Wednesday on fear of continued Ukraine war. There are new concerns about Ukraine corn exports and how much Ukraine spring acres will get planted. US corn export sales are est at 600-1,100 mt. Brazil 1st crop corn harvest is 70 pct done. Domestic Brazil corn prices have dropped below $8.00. Weekly US wheat export sales are est near 100-300 mt. Dry US south plains weather has helped KWK gain on WK. China announced they will spend $315 million dollar to help increase their winter wheat crop? USDA est China wheat stocks near 142 mmt versus total World near 281. Russia domestic wheat and flour prices are record high.

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