MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is unch and near 13.86. SX is up 6 cents and near 12.10. SMN is near 401.1. BON is near 54.15. CN is up 10 cents and near 6.14. WN is down 1 cent and near 6.29. KWN is down 7 cents and near 7.90. MWN is down 2 cents and near 8.09. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Silver, copper, coffee, sugar and cotton are lower.
SN is unch. There was talk that commercials will export US soybeans to EU to make soyoil and ship the soyoil back to US. Question is – has US reached maximum capacity or does this help reduce increase soymeal supplies. Post USDA, estimates of US soybean yield range from 51 to 52. Range of US 2023/24 exports is 1,940 to 2,000. Range of carryout is 250-465 vs USDA 350. Current US crop rating is lowest since 2019 and 2nd lowest since 2008. Dalian soybean prices were lower. Soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were higher,
CN is higher. Concern about US 2 week weather offers support. Some est US 2022/23 feed/residual 125 mil bu higher than USDA. Post USDA, estimates of US corn yield range from 177 to 181. Some could even see yield drop to 172 if US Midwest weather remains dry. If realized, this would drop the US crop 900 mil bu vs USDA estimate. Range of carryout is 1,645-2,344 vs USDA 2,257. This includes range of exports is 1,900 to 2,100. There remains increase Brazil supply competing for US exports.
Wheat futures are lower. KWN saw new selling on concern about US exports. Increase Russia supply and lower prices slowing demand for US exports. Estimates of US wheat crop ranges from 1,645 to 1,700 vs USDA 1,665. Carryout ranges from 520 to 596 vs USDA 562. Key is North Hemisphere crop sizes.
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