Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is up 8 cents and near 13.80. SMH is near 410.7. BOH is near 57.65. CH is up 1 cent and near 6.16. WH is down 6 cents and near 7.98. KWH is down 8 cents and near 8.38. MWZ is down 6 cents and near 10.17.
US stocks are marginally higher. US Dollar is lower. Gold, silver, cocoa and sugar are higher. Copper and coffee are lower. GSI commodity index traded over 565 resistance. Higher energy, grains could test 581.
Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were higher. Corn was lower.
2 week warm and dry S Brazil, NE Argentina, US plains weather forecasted. US rains will be in Delta and Tenn valley. US south plains dry. South US temps above normal. Canada temps near record low. This week US N plains also cold, Russia/ EU weather ok.
One crop watcher lowered SA soybean crops 3.5 mmt. Another down 10, exports down 6. Weekly US soybean exports were below est. No new China biz. They are watching SA weather. Matif rapeseed all time highs. EU demand strong given SBO/palmoil rules against biodiesel.
Lower 1st crop Brazil corn yields tightening South America 2022 supply and add to US demand. US domestic corn use higher than USDA estimate. Corn exports higher esp Canada/Mexico. Weekly US corn exports were below est. CH resistance now 6.33. US farmers selling.
Wheat futures lower. Better Russia weather negative. Low weekly exports also negative. US weather supportive. Funds short 11,000 WH. Long 49,000 KWH and long 13,000 MWH.
Key USDA report Jan 12. Final US 2021 crop numbers, Dec 1 US grain stocks and 2022 WW acres. Range of guess for US 2021/22 corn carryout 1,279-1,508, soybeans 355-401, wheat 588-680. US 2022 corn acres 91.0-92.0 vs 93.3 ly, soybeans 87.5-89.0 vs 87.2, wheat 48.0-49.0 vs 46.7. Range of guess for US 2022/23 corn carryout 1,434-1,815, soybeans 378-585, wheat 682-907.
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