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Sugar Consolidation


Sugar prices are holding in their August consolidation zone, but have been unable to climb past their mid-August highs. While the market is not as technically overbought as it was last week, sugar remains vulnerable to additional long liquidation. October sugar had trouble finding its footing and closed lower for a third negative daily result in a row. Mild gains in energy prices combined with a modest rebound in the Brazilian currency helped to provide carryover support to the sugar market.


Cocoa clearly benefited from stronger global risk sentiment and positive key outside markets early this week. While demand concerns continue to shadow the market, cocoa is in position to extend the recovery move. Cocoa main’s source of support came from strength in European equities and the extended rally in US stock markets, both of which point towards some improvement in cocoa’s near-term demand outlook.


While coffee has seen a volatile price pattern recently, the market has been able to climb well clear of its early August lows. With stronger global risk sentiment helping to shore up near-term demand prospects, coffee is in good shape to extend a recovery move. Stronger equity markets in the US and Europe also pointed towards improving global demand prospects, which provided an additional source of support and became a critical factor with coffee finishing in positive territory. In addition, a modest rebound in the Brazilian currency gave a further boost to the coffee market as it eases pressure on Brazil’s farmers to market their near-term supply to foreign customers.


News that China and US trade officials have reaffirmed their commitment to Phase 1 trade deal overnight is seen as a positive force. December cotton broke out of its recent consolidation to trade to its highest level since February 26. Two tropical storms heading to the Gulf of Mexico threaten to bring heavy rains and possible wind damage to cotton crops in the Delta and southeast.


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