Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stocks are lower. Crude is higher and near $62. US Dollar is lower. Gold is higher. U.S. central and SW Plains will be dry. Central U.S. heat wave will continue into mid-week followed by cooling. Rain is likely in the central Midwest from NE and KS to N IL and IA next week.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.66. Dalian soybean, soymeal were lower while palmoil and soyoil were higher. USDA estimated US 24/25 soybean carryout near 350 and 25/26 295. USDA estimated US 2025 soybean crop at 4,340 mil bu vs 4,366 ly. USDA raised US 24/25 soybean exports 25 mil bu. USDA estimated US 25/26 crush at 2,490 mil bu vs most estimates of 2,625 and exports at 1,815 versus most estimates of 1,400. This could suggest final US 25/26 soybean carryout could be closer to 590. USDA estimated China soybean imports at 108 mmt and 25/26 112. China estimated 2025 imports at 98.6 and 2026 95.8. USDA estimated Brazil 2026 soybean crop at 175 mmt and 57 mmt above US. US soybean exports are up 11 pct vs ly and USDA up 9. 48 pct of US soybean crop is planted vs 34 average.
CORN
CN is near 4.44. CN-CZ spread is now near 2. Dalian corn futures were lower. USDA estimated US 24/25 carryout at 1,415 vs USDA 1,465 and 25/26 at only 1,800. USDA raised US 24/25 export 50 mil bu. 2025/26 feed/residual is 5,900, ethanol use 5,500 and exports 2,675. Some feel export could be closer to 2,400 which suggest final US 25/26 carryout closer to 2,005. USDA estimated US 2025 corn crop at a record 15,820 mil bu vs 14,867 ly. USDA raised Brazil corn crop 4 mmt to 130. US. US corn exports are up 29 pct vs ly and USDA revised up 13. 62 pct of US corn crop is planted vs 47 average.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.07. US north plains to get rain. China wheat areas and Australia are dry. USDA est US 2025/26 wheat carryout at 923. This includes food use near 977 mil bu vs 975 this year and exports near 800 vs 820 this year. USDA est US 2025 wheat crop at 1,921 mil bu vs 1,885 expected. USDA est China wheat imports at 6 mmt up 2.7 vs this year, Iran up 1.5 mmt, Pakistan up 1.9 mmt and Turkey up 4 mmt. US exports are up 15 pct vs ly. USDA raised WW rating 3 pct to 54. SW plantings are 66 vs 49 average.
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