Global Ag News For May 14.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Lula Says Brazil Unafraid of US Retaliation Over China Ties

Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva brushed off concern that the Trump administration would punish his country for building closer ties with China, after a state visit to Beijing that saw him sign more than 30 agreements.

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Lula said Brazil isn’t afraid of any retaliation, adding he’s always wanted to improve relations with China as well as other countries and blocs. “There is no concern on Brazil’s side with the US posture,” he said in Beijing.

Lula struck an unapologetic note as he rounded off his trip, saying China and Brazil are united in defending multinationalism and fighting protectionism. Brazil’s president has sought to further expand the ties, betting on Chinese investment and support for a development strategy meant to move his nation up the global value chain.

The deepening relationship was on display Tuesday, as Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Lula signed deals for Chinese investment in mining, transport infrastructure and ports, as well as the purchase of jets made by Embraer SA.

The pacts signed in Beijing marked the latest step in Lula’s efforts to transform Brazil’s commodities-heavy economy with Chinese assistance, while sending one of the strongest signals yet that Donald Trump’s protectionist threats have done little to dissuade the leader of Latin America’s largest economy from betting even bigger on Beijing.

China and Brazil also decided to cooperate on artificial intelligence and take joint action on climate, while their central banks entered a currency swap agreement to provide liquidity to each other’s markets over a period of five years.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/2 in SRW, down 1/2 in HRW, down 4 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans up 2 3/4; Soymeal up $1.40; Soyoil down 0.31.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 6 in SRW, down 6 1/4 in HRW, down 17 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 8; Soybeans up 23 1/2; Soymeal up $0.60; Soyoil up 2.60.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 15 in SRW, down 18 1/4 in HRW, down 20 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 33 3/4; Soybeans up 30 3/4; Soymeal down $3.30; Soyoil up 2.20.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 9.1% in SRW, down 10.2% in HRW, up 3.5% in HRS; Corn is down 4.7%; Soybeans up 7.0%; Soymeal down 7.1%; Soyoil up 28.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans up 5 yuan; Soymeal down 5; Soyoil up 52; Palm oil up 98; Corn up 2 — Malaysian Palm is up 31.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 31 ringgit (+0.80%) at 3924.

 

There were changes in registrations (-1 Oats, -1 Corn). Registration total: 240 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 201 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 986 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 598 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 13 were: SRW Wheat up 6,617 contracts, HRW Wheat up 7,065, Corn up 11,001, Soybeans up 3,023, Soymeal down 2,059, Soyoil up 5,049.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 13 MAY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: High rainfall expected in the north-central U.S., while dry conditions return to the south
• SOUTH AMERICA: Dry weather will prevail across Brazil through the next 10+ days, having mixed impacts on crops throughout
• EUROPE: Dry conditions will persist across Central/Northern Europe through 10 days, while Southern Europe picks up near or above normal totals
• SOUTH ASIA: Cool and wet weather is expected across Southern India during the next 10 days, as we rapidly approach the summer monsoon season

 

SHIFTING WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD FOR NORTH AMERICA

What to Watch:

• Short-lived uptick in rainfall across the northern U.S. and bordering parts of Canada
• Shifting temperature pattern ahead

 

ANOTHER HOT/DRY SUMMER MIGHT BE IN STORE FOR CROPS IN THE BLACK SEA AREA

What to Watch:

• Crop areas of the Black Sea region are likely to face another summer with adverse weather
• There is potential for flooding rains across Western and Central Europe, but the certainty in precipitation forecast is decreased
• High risk of increased frequency of heatwaves along southern Europe

  

Canadian Prairies: Some limited showers and breezy winds continue on Tuesday. This week will be more chaotic as several impulses bring scattered showers through the region throughout the week and may be heavy in the east later this week. It is possible that some snow mixes in over Manitoba late this week as well. Temperatures will be trending colder throughout the week and frosts may return by the weekend in some areas. The weather pattern looks to stay active next week with multiple chances for precipitation as well. That could slow down the planting progress, which is already ahead of schedule, but would be helpful to build some moisture in for the newly planted crops.

Brazil: With the wet season over, Brazil relies on fronts coming up from Argentina to supply southern areas with some rainfall, which would be favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Corn will largely draw upon built up soil moisture from the wet season to fill kernels. A front may move into southern areas early next week with some showers.

Argentina: Good harvest conditions have been in place for a while now for corn and soybeans, as well as early planting for winter wheat. A complicated front will waffle over the country later this week and weekend and may get some showers into northern and eastern areas. More showers are possible next week, which would be helpful for winter wheat establishment.

Europe: A low in the Atlantic continues showers across France and the UK through Wednesday, and Spain through Thursday, being beneficial for most areas. Another system will drop showers through eastern areas later this week and could stick around for several days if it gets cutoff from the jet stream. Germany is now being left between systems and fronts and is trending drier and could use some rain.

Black Sea: Bands of showers continue to move through this week as the weather pattern tries to reverse the drought in the region. It is a slow process, however. Though some areas have been a little left out, the pattern has been much more favorable for getting some needed precipitation. It is also coming with colder air, which may produce patchy frost in some areas across the north and west throughout the week. This pattern may last through next week as well.

 

The player sheet for 5/13 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 11,500 corn, buyers of 3,500 soybeans, sellers of 4,000 soymeal, and buyers of 8,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• RICE PURCHASE: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. purchased an estimated 52,123 metric tons of rice mainly to be sourced from the United States in an international tender that closed on April 15.

 PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• SOYMEAL TENDER: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 60,000 metric tons of soymeal sourced optionally from South America, the United States or China
• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued a new international tender to purchase up to 320,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from Argentina or Brazil only
• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins.
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins.

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending May 9 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 1.031m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 25.067m bbl vs 25.191m a week ago

 

CROP TOUR: Wheat Yields Seen Above Last Year in Central Kansas

Timely rainfall last autumn and earlier in the spring has winter wheat yields set to surpass last year’s totals in the central part of the top US grower of the grain, according to scouts Tuesday on the first day of the Wheat Quality Council’s annual crop tour.

• Yields were estimated at about 69.7 bushels per acre after nine field stops on one route that went through Geary, Dickinson, Saline, McPherson, Ellsworth and Barton counties
  • That’s up sharply from 48 bu/acre on this route last year traveling from Manhattan, Kansas, to Colby
  • NOTE: The US Department of Agriculture in a Monday report estimated the yield for the full state of Kansas at 50 bu/acre, up 7 bushels from last year.
• Overall, fields were green and lush, with an even stand of plants that points to consistency in yields
  • Still, some soils were beginning to crack, showing that they are in need of rain, while there were signs of a crop virus called wheat streak mosaic that could reduce yields
• NOTE: Crop tour will publish full findings from the first day later Tuesday

 

CROP TOUR: Kansas Wheat Yields Seen Above Last Year on First Day

Hard red winter wheat yields are estimated at an average 50.5 bu/acre, according to data collected from 196 fields Tuesday on the first day of the Wheat Quality Council’s annual crop tour.

• That’s above 49.9 bu/acre a year ago
• The projected increase comes as rainfall boosted crop growth for fields in much of the central part of the state, before conditions turned drier in recent weeks
  • NOTE: The crop tour will estimate production for the entire state on Thursday
  • NOTE: The US Department of Agriculture estimated the state’s yield at 50 bu/acre

 

US soybean exports may fall 20% without China trade deal, AgResource says

U.S. soybean exports may drop 20% and the prices paid to farmers will plunge if the United States and China fail to resolve their trade dispute limiting U.S. soybeans from their largest market, agribusiness consultants AgResource said on Wednesday.

The temporary truce in the U.S.-China trade war, announced on Monday, would not help U.S. farmers revive soy sales in China as Chinese duties, even reduced to 10% from 145%, remained too high to make U.S. soybeans competitive, AgResource President Dan Basse told Reuters.

U.S. soybean exports could slump to 1.5 billion bushels from an initial estimate of 1.865 billion without a substantive deal, Basse said on the sidelines of the GrainCom conference in Geneva.

At the same time, U.S. soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade SX25 could fall as low as $9 per bushel, compared to $10.6 a bushel traded on Wednesday, Basse said.

“It’s important that any U.S.-China trade deal happen by late summer or the export forecast will become reality, pressuring U.S. farm income. The clock is ticking,” he said.

In contrast, if a deal brought tariffs back to their previous level, soybean prices could surge as high as $13 a bushel, he added.

“The truce helps but Brazil will have an additional 20 million metric tons of soybeans to export on September 1,” Basse said.

China has been a critical market for U.S. farmers representing more than half of U.S. soybean exports in the most recent marketing year.

However, American farmers worry the tariff pause will not be enough to help them, as Brazil, the biggest soy supplier to China, has ample supplies from a record harvest, lower prices, and its farmers do not face any Chinese tariffs.

China, the world’s largest crop importer, already sources roughly 70% of its soybean imports from Brazil.

 

US farmers say Brazil keeps edge in China’s soy market despite trade truce

• US and China slash tariffs in 90-day trade truce
• Farmers worry about Beijing’s remaining duty on US soy
• US farmers face competition for sales from Brazil

A surprising tariff pause between Beijing and Washington will not help U.S. farmers revive soy sales in China without additional concessions, producers said, because top-supplier Brazil still has a competitive price advantage.

Under the truce announced on Monday, the United States will cut extra tariffs it imposed on Chinese imports to 30% from 145% for the next three months, while Chinese duties on U.S. imports will fall to 10% from 125%.

Soybean export premiums fell in Brazil while U.S. futures prices hit a three-month high on the de-escalation, reflecting expectations that China could buy more from the U.S.

But American farmers said the tariff pause isn’t enough. Brazil, the biggest soy supplier to China, has ample supplies from a record harvest, lower prices, and its farmers do not face the Chinese tariff that U.S. competitors do. China, the world’s largest crop importer, already sources roughly 70% of its soybean imports from Brazil.

“The tariff that remains in place for U.S. soy is far from inconsequential,” said Caleb Ragland, a farmer in Magnolia, Kentucky, and president of the American Soybean Association.

“Products purchased from our competitors in Brazil and Argentina are not burdened with this extra cost.”

While the United States in 2022/23 accounted for about 28% of China’s soybean imports, it has been a critical market for U.S. farmers, representing more than half of U.S. soybean exports in the most recent marketing year.

President Donald Trump’s trade war has hurt sales of American soybeans, sorghum and pork products to China and created a new opportunity for Brazil.

Brazil aims to export even more agricultural goods to China, including sorghum, pork and chicken, and seize market share, said Luis Rua, who oversees foreign trade for Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture.

“What they (China) will buy is what they barely need to get by,” Dan Henebry, a corn and soy grower in Buffalo, Illinois, said. “If South America is short… they’ll buy from us.”

Chinese buyers have also avoided U.S. wheat and bought 400,000 to 500,000 metric tons from Australia and Canada in recent weeks, traders said.

U.S. farmers hope China may buy American farm goods as part of trade negotiations. However, Chinese importers will be reluctant to book large purchases because of remaining trade barriers and uncertainty over what will happen when the pause expires, said Even Rogers Pay, agriculture analyst at Trivium China.

“There are a few things stacked up against this trade war ceasefire being a boon for farmers,” Pay said.

U.S. pork exported to China still faces a minimum total tariff rate of 57% during the pause, according to the National Pork Producers Council

The pause is set to expire just before U.S. farmers begin harvesting soybeans and corn at the start of their new marketing season, an important time for exports. They planted fewer soybeans this spring than last year because the crop looked less profitable than corn.

“If negotiations break down, buyers risk losses when cargoes arrive during the U.S. soybean marketing season,” a China-based soy crusher said. “It’s just not worth the gamble.”

The truce did little to address underlying issues that led to the dispute, including the U.S. trade deficit with China.

Beijing did not fulfill commitments to buy more U.S. agricultural products under a trade deal it struck with Trump during his first term in 2020.

“The situation was bad before we started, and something needed to be done. The situation is still bad,” said Ron Heck, a corn and soy farmer in Perry, Iowa.

At the time, China had slashed U.S. crop purchases, prompting Trump’s administration to pay farmers billions of dollars in aid.

“It doesn’t appear that we solved anything after that turmoil,” said Henebry. “We’re right back at the baseball plate trying to see if we’re going to hit a home run or strike out again.”

 

China forecasts lower soybean imports in 2025/26 on plans to reduce soymeal use

China forecast soybean imports would fall next year thanks to work to cut soymeal’s use in the livestock sector in its first outlook for the upcoming 2025/26 crop year released on Monday.

Efforts to reduce soymeal content in animal feed will lower consumption in the livestock sector and bring down imports next year, the report said.

Imports are forecast to fall to 95.8 million tons in the coming crop year, down 2.8% from the 98.6 million tons forecast this year.

Soybean imports this crop year are being boosted by a bumper harvest of new soybeans in South America, although the forecast remains below last year’s levels, the report said.

 

Brazil’s SLC Agrícola to Expand Planted Area in 2025-26 Season

SLC Agrícola SA, one of Brazil’s largest grains producer, expects to increase planted area in the next marketing year by almost 14% starting in July, the company said in an earnings release.

• Expansion is fueled by acquisitions of companies and farms during the first quarter, the company said
• SLC plants soybeans, corn, cotton among other agriculture products
• Corn areas planted in southern Brazil in 2024-25 marketing year still need to be monitored due to weather risks, as Brazil, Argentina, the US and Ukraine are the world’s biggest corn suppliers

 

China Opens Market to Brazil’s Corn Ethanol Coproduct DDG: Unem

Chinese government signed on Tuesday a protocol along with Brazilian authorities during the visit of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to China, corn ethanol industry group Unem said in a statement.

• Dried Distillers Grains and similar corn ethanol coproducts are used as animal feed
  • Unem to visit Chinese companies interested on Brazil’s DDG and DDGS during the mission, including Cofco and Wilmar Tianjin
  • Brazil exported $190.6 million of DDG last year, mainly to Vietnam, Turkey, New Zealand, Spain and Thailand, Unem said
• China has also opened its market to duck and turkey meat, and chicken offal, animal protein industry group ABPA said in a separate statement

 

India’s vegetable oil stockpiles fall to 5-year low as imports drop

India’s vegetable oil imports in April plunged to their lowest in over four years, led by declines in palm oil imports, dragging inventories to their lowest in nearly five years, a leading industry body said on Wednesday.

Depleted stocks may mean India, the world’s biggest buyer of vegetable oils, will increase imports of palm oil and soyoil in the coming months, supporting Malaysian palm oil prices and U.S. soyoil futures.

India’s palm oil imports in April fell 24.29% from March to 321,446 metric tons, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) said.

Imports of soyoil increased 1.6% to 360,984 tons and sunflower oil imports fell 5.5% to 180,128 tons, the industry trade body said.

Lower imports of palm oil and sunflower oil brought down India’s total vegetable oil imports in April to 891,558 tons, the lowest since February 2021, the SEA said.

Below-average imports for the past four months have reduced vegetable oil stocks in the country to 1.35 million tons as of May 1, the lowest since July 2020, according to SEA data.

In the first half of the 2024/25 marketing year, which ends in October, palm oil’s share of India’s total vegetable oil imports fell to 42% from 60%. Conversely, the combined share of soybean and sunflower oil rose to 58% from 40%.

Palm oil’s premium over soyoil prompted Indian buyers to reduce palm oil purchases and increase soyoil buying in recent months.

But palm oil is trading at a discount to rival oils, which should lift imports from May onwards, said a New Delhi-based dealer with a global trading house.

“Indian buyers are price-sensitive. Since palm oil is now trading at a discount to soyoil, they have again switched from soyoil to palm oil,” the dealer said.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

 

Indonesia Hikes Palm Export Levy to Boost Biofuel, Replanting

Indonesia raised its export levy on crude palm oil from 7.5% to 10% starting May 17 in a widely expected move to fund a biofuel program and replanting efforts in the world’s largest producer.

The government also increased levies for outbound shipments of other palm oil products, according to a regulation issued by the finance ministry.

The policy is expected to bring in higher revenue for Indonesia’s plantation fund management agency, known as BPDP, which uses most of the funds to support the nation’s expanded biodiesel blending program and replanting old plantations.

The Southeast Asian nation increased blending of palm-based biodiesel in gasoil to 40% in January. Only about half the biodiesel allocation this year will be subsidized as higher prices of palm oil have made the program more costly.

The hike could push palm oil prices higher as exporters shift the additional burden to buyers. Exporters must also pay a separate export tax to the nation’s customs department.

Higher levies on other products included 9.5% on crude palm olein, up from 6%, while refined bleached and deodorized palm olein went from 4.5% to 7.5%, and biodiesel from 3% to 4.75%, according to the regulation.

 

Ukraine Grain Exports Down 17% Y/y in Season to Mid-May

Ukraine’s grain exports in the season that started in July 1 reached 36.7m tons as of Wednesday, down 17% versus the same period last season, according to data on the Agriculture Ministry’s website.

• The total includes:
  • 14.4m tons of wheat, 13.3% lower y/y
  • 2.28m tons of barley, down 2% y/y
  • 19.5m tons of corn, down 21.4% y/y
• Exports so far in May reached 1.5m tons, almost 50% below the same period last year
• Meanwhile, sowing for the next season has covered 4.3m hectares, the same as last year, according to ministry data
• Total area for 2025 spring planting is estimated to touch 5.7m hectares, steady year on year

 

Ukraine’s Astarta Completes Spring Crops Planting

Ukrainian agriculture firm Astarta finished sowing of spring crops for 2025 harvest, it says on its website.

• Astarta faced “challenging” weather conditions – abnormally high temperatures in March and frosts in April
• The total acreage includes:
  • 34k hectare of sugar beet, down 11% y/y
  • 56k hectare of soybeans, down 20% y/y
  • 46k hectare of winter wheat, down 6% y/y
  • 29k hectare of sunflower, up 61% y/y
  • 11k hectare of rapeseed, down 8% y/y
  • 14k hectare of corn, more than double increase y/y
• Early grain harvesting to start in less than two months: Astarta

 

Russia boosts agro exports to UAE 26% to over 290,000 tonnes in Q1 – Agroexport center

Russia boosted exports of agricultural products to the United Arab Emirates 26% year-on-year to over 290,000 tonnes in the first quarter this year, the Agriculture Ministry’s Agroexport center said, citing preliminary expert estimates.

Russia increased shipments of dairy products the most at 7.7-fold to 54 tonnes from 7 tonnes, with ice cream exports accounting for around one-third, growing 3-fold to 19 tonnes.

Exports of leguminous crops rose 1.9-fold to 13,500 tonnes from 7,100 tonnes, with lentils serving as the driver. Grain shipments increased 1.3-fold to 268,000 tonnes from 209,000 tonnes, with particularly wheat jumping to 244,000 tonnes from 139,000 tonnes.

Agroexport also noted positive dynamics in supplying meat products, which rose 1.3-fold to 1,900 tonnes from 1,400 tonnes.

Russia’s top five shipments by volume included wheat at 82% of the share, barley at 8%, legumes at 5%, poultry at 2%, and soybean oil at around 1%.

 

 

 

 

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