Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
TGIF. Grains are mixed. US stocks are higher. Crude is unch near $61.58. US Dollar is lower. Gold is lower. Cattle was lower and hogs were higher. Trump made impressive deals in Middle East. Ukraine and Russia talks but key players are not there. US rains north, Delta and Midwest. W plains are dry. Florida record heat. W Canada prairies dry. GFS model wacky with N EU rains. EU model dry. Ukraine rains. Russia dry.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.53. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were lower. BON ended limit down and is lower overnight due to fact US EPA Chief said decision on 45Z will be delayed. US soyoil export prices had built a $185 premium over SA prices in hopes for new US domestic demand deal. July board crush drop to 126 cents. US soybean export commit is up 13 pct vs ly and USDA up 9. Conab est Brazil soybean crop at 168.3 mmt vs 167.8 previous and USDA 169. Trade still feels USDA is too high in their estimate of US 2025/26 soybean exports and too low in carryout estimate. Indonesia to raise palmoil import levy to help pay for 40 pct biodiesel blend program.
CORN
CN is near 4.49. Dalian corn futures were lower. Matif corn futures were higher. US corn export commit is up 29 pct vs ly and USDA up 13. This plus higher ethanol production helped CN-CZ spread rally to 9. Trade still feels USDA is too high in their estimate of US 2025/36 corn exports and too low in carryout estimate. Conab raised their estimate of the Brazil Safrina crop 2 mmt to 99.8. USDA estimated Brazil corn crop up 4 mmt to 130 and 2025/26 crop at 131.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.20. China wheat areas and Australia are dry. Kansas wheat tour estimated KS yield at 53.0 vs 5 year average of 44.3. They estimated the crop at 338.5 mil bu vs 307.45 ly but did warn of higher disease and toxin risk. US wheat export commit is up 14 pct vs ly and USDA up 16. Matif futures were up for 5th straight day and 2 week high. Saudi Arabia is tendering for 655 mt. There is a wide range of ideas on Turkey wheat import from an import ban to imports more than USDA 7.5 mmt.
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