Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Month end. Grains are mixed. North America weather forecast is crop favorable. Rains improved US north plains. US Delta, SE and ECB remans wet. General Midwest rains next week with warmer temps. US Appeals court reinstated Trump tariffs. US stocks are lower. Gold is lower. Crude is higher. USD is higher. US Treasury Secretary said US and China trade talks have stalled.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.49. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were higher. Soyoil and palmoil were lower. White House weighing plan to give immediate relief to 2024 biofuel exemption request. One group dropped US 2024/25 soybean crush 20 mil vu which raised carryout to 374. They reduced 2025/26 crush 75 mil bu vs USDA but added 200 mil bu to their export guess. This leaves a carryout at 500 mil bu vs USDA 295. Canada canola exports are 8.3 mmt vs 5.2 ly. Matif rapeseed futures were lower on approaching harvest. Argentina soybean harvest 81 pct with crop est at 50 mmt. Trade est weekly US soybean exports sales at 150-700 mt vs 322 last week.
CORN
CN is near 4.49. Dalian corn ended higher. Some feel US 2025/26 exports are 275 mil bu below USDA which increase carryout closer to 2,020. There is also talk that some US open and unshipped corn sales could be cancelled. Brazil 2nd corn crop est range from 108-118 mmt. Conab 99.8. This suggest total crop 130-140 mmt vs USDA 130 and Conab 127. Canada corn exports are 2.4 mmt vs .9 ly. Argentina corn harvest 40 pct with crop still est at 49 mmt. Trade est weekly US corn exports sales at 800-1,600 mt vs 1,409 last week.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.37. WN support is 5.25. Resistance 5.50. USD has turned higher. Argentina wheat futures are lower and near 5 month lows with 10 pct of crop planted. Matif futures traded lower into consumer buying. Analyst survey suggest EU wheat crop at 137 mmt vs USDA 146. Same survey est Russia crop at 84 mmt vs USDA 83. Sovecon est Russia crop at 81 mmt with exports near 40.8 mmt, up 1.1 mmt from previous est and USDA 45. Canada wheat exports are 22.7 mmt vs 20.6 ly. Trade est weekly US wheat exports sales at 100-800 mt vs 868 last week.
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