Global Ag News For June 2.2025

TOP HEADLINES

India Cuts Import Tax on Crude Edible Oils to Control Prices

India halved its basic import duty on crude edible oils, while keeping the tax on refined forms unchanged, in a move to control local prices and support the processing industry.

The government cut the levy on crude palm, soybean and sunflower oils to 10%, according to an official notification late Friday. The change, which will be effective from May 31, will reduce the effective tax — after including other charges — to 16.5% from 27.5%.

The action by the world’s largest importer of cooking oil is expected to help lower retail prices of packed edible oils, which have jumped as much as 30% in 12 months. It will also support refiners, who have been complaining that a narrow tax differential was hurting their operations.

India’s initiative may underpin global prices of cooking oils by bolstering demand. Crude palm oil prices in Kuala Lumpur have fallen almost 13% so far this year on higher supplies and unstable demand. However, soybean oil prices in Chicago have surged 16% during the period.

The world’s most populous nation, with about 1.4 billion people, India relies on imports for about 60% of its edible oil needs. It mainly buys palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia, soybean oil from Argentina and Brazil, and sunflower oil from the Black Sea region.

“This is a win-win situation for vegetable oil refiners as well as for consumers, as local prices will go down due to the lower duty on crude oils,” said B.V. Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

The decision to widen the duty gap between crude and refined oils to 19.25% from 8.25% will discourage imports of refined palm olein and shift demand back to crude palm oil, “revitalizing the domestic refining sector,” Mehta said.

Food inflation in India could drop further on expectation of higher oilseed production following an early start of the monsoon this year. The India Meteorological Department has predicted above-average precipitation during the June-September rainy season, a favorable condition for monsoon-sown crops such as rice, soybeans and cotton.

The government’s action will help protect the sector from an influx of refined oils, which has had a negative impact, said Sudhakar Desai, president of the Indian Vegetable Oil Producers’ Association.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3 1/2 in SRW, up 5 1/2 in HRW, up 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans down 6 3/4; Soymeal down $3.00; Soyoil up 0.07.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 5 in SRW, unchanged in HRW, up 22 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 15 3/4; Soybeans down 25 1/4; Soymeal down $2.90; Soyoil down 2.39.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.5% in SRW, down 3.7% in HRW, up 5.6% in HRS; Corn is down 3.2%; Soybeans up 3.7%; Soymeal down 4.6%; Soyoil up 18.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans up 8 yuan; Soymeal up 13; Soyoil down 42; Palm oil down 36; Corn up 11 — Malaysian Palm is down 54.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 54 ringgit (-1.37%) at 3878.

China markets are closed for Holiday.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 193 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 598 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 30 were: SRW Wheat down 2,646 contracts, HRW Wheat down 581, Corn up 5,080, Soybeans down 1,200, Soymeal up 834, Soyoil down 490.

 

Northern Plains: A front started to move into the region on Sunday night and will produce scattered showers through early Tuesday before it leaves. Some isolated showers may follow behind the front throughout the rest of the week. A system should move through Canada this weekend and could bring some more showers through as well. And we will watch for additional chances next week. The region needs the rain though, as drought still covers a widespread area, though it has decreased in coverage over the last few weeks. A few cooler days are forecast behind the first system early this week, but generally mild conditions are favored through next week.

Central/Southern Plains: Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through Saturday into Sunday. A system will sweep through the region this week, but may do so in a couple of pieces. That could bring some areas of heavy rain through the region yet again, though there are some areas that may miss out. Models are unsure of the specifics, but it looks like a good week for precipitation again. More disturbances and fronts coming down from Canada this weekend and next week should keep the chances going, which is good for filling wheat and developing corn and soybeans.

Midwest: Showers left the east over the weekend, but it was quiet for most areas. A front will move into the region early Tuesday and stall out for a day or two across the south where heavy rain may accumulate. Another push along the front will come later in the week and that may or may not be widespread. Models are trying to decide. Additional fronts will move through this weekend and next week, keeping the active pattern going through mid-June. For drier areas across the north, the pattern is favorable. But for wetter areas across the south, the forecast keeps soils looking wet as producers have a hard time finishing up planting.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: It was favorably drier over the weekend with just a few spotty showers that moved through. A front will move into the northern end of the region later this week and stall out somewhere through the region. Models are unsure where, but put down a lot of precipitation where it stalls out going into next week. And that zone may shift slightly north and south with time. Overly wet conditions continue across a wide area of the region and the coming rain will not be helpful. We will also keep an eye on the Gulf for potential tropical systems.

Canadian Prairies: A system brought showers to northern Alberta on Sunday and is bringing more showers to southeastern areas as well. Showers are lighter than hoped for. Isolated showers may continue throughout the week, but be very spotty and light. A bigger system is possible this weekend, though models are reducing the rainfall with this system as well. Disturbances moving through behind it next week could fill in some showers though, too. With planting all but finished, rainfall is needed in several areas for proper germination and early growth.

Brazil: It was dry over the weekend, but a front stalled out across southern safrinha corn areas could be active multiple times over the next week, bringing somewhat favorable rainfall to corn that is still filling. Harvest has begun though, and will increase throughout the month of June, so this rainfall will not be overly helpful for the crop. Southern wheat areas are forecast to stay drier, which could use some rain for establishment.

Argentina: It was dry and cold over the weekend, with widespread frosts across much of the country going back to last week, especially in the south and west. With corn and soybean harvest underway, the frosts are not damaging, but could slow growth for winter wheat. That crop continues to ramp up planting through the month of June.

Europe: Scattered showers went through Europe over the weekend, but missed plenty of areas in the south and east. Systems will continue to favor northern areas this week, but there will be plenty of areas that miss out. France may have larger sections of the country that do. Northern areas continue to need rainfall. And while they’re getting it, it’s coming in patches that are missing some areas, too. Drier conditions across the south are noteworthy, but recent rainfall should stem the tide of a drier pattern there for the next two weeks.

Black Sea: A system left this weekend, but only brought isolated light showers to western Russia. Several more systems will move through over the next two weeks, but they are favoring the northwest with rainfall, while leaving the south and east much drier. Long-term deficits continue in many areas, including western Russia, and the lack of soil moisture is concerning for reproductive to filling wheat and developing corn.

Australia: Scattered showers moved into Western Australia Sunday night and will be possible through Wednesday. The rainfall will be much-appreciated, though amounts will likely be spotty. A little disturbance moving through eastern Australia is bringing some showers into early this week as well, but with very little coverage. The western system could hang around southeastern Australia later this week into early next week, as models have changed that up recently. Any rainfall there will be welcomed under the intensifying drought which has been unfavorable for winter wheat and canola establishment.

China: Systems continue to bypass central China in early June, favoring areas south of the Yangtze River and in the northeast. Filling wheat on the North China Plain has had harsher conditions to end their season and could see additional stress before harvest begins in mid-June. Corn and soybeans in this region could also be facing tougher conditions early in the growth stages. Models start to come more alive mid-month, so this may be temporary.

 

The player sheet for 5/30 had funds: net sellers of 2,500 corn, sellers of 4,500 soybeans, and sellers of 9,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: Exporters sold a total of 210,560 metric tons of U.S. corn to unknown destinations, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said under its daily reporting rules. Of the total, 145,560 metric tons was for 2024-25 delivery and 65,000 metric tons was for 2025-26.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: An importer group in the Philippines is believed on Thursday to have bought around 110,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat expected to be sourced from Australia.

 PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins
• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued a new international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 179K Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 948K of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending May 22.

• Corn sales fell to 948k tons vs 1,409k in previous week
• Soybean sales fell to 179k tons vs 323k in previous week
• All wheat sales fell to 583k tons vs 869k in previous week

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following table shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending May 22, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: Mexico with 82k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 218k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Mexico with 144k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following  shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending May 22, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 14.1k tons of the 30.5k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases

 

CROP SURVEY: US April Soybean Processing Before USDA’s Report

The following is from a Bloomberg survey of six anlaysts.

• Soybean crush seen at 202m bu in April, a 13.8% rise from a year ago
• Crude and once-refined soybean-oil reserves at end of April seen at 2.101b lbs, down from 2.311b
• Corn used in ethanol production seen up 2.8% y/y to 434.4m bu

 

USDA April soybean crush seen at 201.8 million bushels, analysts say

The U.S. soybean crush likely hit 6.055 million short tons in April, or 201.8 million bushels, according to analysts surveyed by Reuters ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture report due on Monday.

Analysts also estimated that soyoil stocks increased to the highest in 10 months.

If the average of nine analyst estimates is realized, the soybean crush would be down 2.3% from the 206.6 million bushels crushed in March but up 13.7% from the April 2024 crush of 177.6 million bushels.

The average daily crush rate, however, was estimated to have risen to 6.727 million bushels a day in April, up from a six-month low of 6.663 million bushels a day in March.

U.S. soybean crush capacity has increased in recent years as processors built new plants and expanded existing ones amid a surge in demand for vegetable oil for making biofuels.

The U.S. crush hit record levels at times last autumn and winter, but the processing pace has slowed this spring as crush margins narrowed and as some processors idled facilities for seasonal maintenance and repairs, analysts said.

Crush estimates for April ranged from 201.0 million to 202.9 million bushels, with a median of 202.0 million bushels.

The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly fats and oils report at 2 p.m. CDT (1900 GMT) on Monday.

U.S. soyoil stocks as of April 30 were estimated at 2.101 billion pounds, based on the average of estimates from five analysts.

The oil stocks estimate reflects a 1.1% rise from supplies totaling 2.079 billion pounds at the end of March but down 9.1% from the end of April 2024, when stocks totaled 2.311 billion pounds.

Estimates ranged from 2.050 billion to 2.150 billion pounds, with a median of 2.100 billion pounds.

The National Oilseed Processors Association said its members, which account for at least 95% of U.S.-processed soybeans, crushed 190.226 million bushels in April, while end-of-month oil stocks held by NOPA members rose to 1.527 billion pounds.

 

Brazil 2024/25 Corn Output Est. Raised to 139M Mt: Safras

New estimate compares with a previous forecast of 135.1m metric tons in April, according to an emailed report from consulting firm Safras & Mercado.

• Rainfall in April and May helped boost the outlook for the crop
• Corn area estimated at 21.3m ha; April forecast was 21.2m ha
• Yield estimate raised to 6,582 kg/ha from 6,376 kg/ha previously
• Forecast for summer corn crop in the Center-South region affirmed at 24.7m mt

 

Indonesia Jan-April palm oil exports at 6.41 million metric tons

Indonesia exported 6.41 million metric tons of crude and refined palm oil in the January to April period, down 5.37% on a yearly basis, data from the statistics bureau showed on Monday.

However, due to higher prices, the shipments were worth $7.05 billion in the first four months of 2025, up 20% from the same period in 2024.

The bureau’s data excludes palm kernel oil, oleochemicals and biodiesel.

Indonesia’s palm oil association GAPKI usually releases its own data at a later date, which cover more products and so has different export figures.

 

Malaysia May Palm Oil Exports +17.86% M/m: Intertek

Following is a summary of Malaysia’s May palm oil exports according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Total exports for May 2025: 1.321m tons
• Crude palm oil exports: 258,189 tons, 19.5% of total
• EU led all destinations for total exports: 297,351 tons

 

Ukraine’s Grain Exports Down 19% Y/y So Far This Season

Ukraine’s grain exports in season that ends by June 30, reached 38.3m tons as of Monday, down about 19% from the same period a year earlier, according to data on the Agriculture Ministry’s website.

The total includes:

• 14.9m tons of wheat, 15% lower y/y
• 2.3m tons of barley, down 3.4% y/y
• 20.6m tons of corn, down 23% y/y

 

Russia needs action to remain world’s top wheat exporter, government official says

Russia needs to act swiftly in order to maintain its position as the world’s top wheat exporter, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev said on Friday, acknowledging a sharp slowdown in wheat exports in the current season.

Patrushev, who is responsible for agriculture in the government, said Russia will export 44.5 million metric tons of wheat and 53 million tons of grain in the 2024-2025 season.

Russia did not disclose statistics for last season’s wheat exports but the government’s estimates stand at 53 million tons, while the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported the figure of 55.5 million tons, implying a fall of up to 20% this year.

“The situation with grain exports is currently developing negatively. Compared to the same period in 2024, the dynamics are significantly lower,” Patrushev told a conference in Sochi in southern Russia.

Russian farmers were hit by extreme weather last year. They are also complaining about falling profitability of growing wheat due to high export duties, rising costs for fuel and fertilizers, a strong rouble, and high interest rates.

Despite the fall in wheat exports, Russia maintains the status of the world’s largest wheat exporter, but its share of the global market is set to shrink to 22% from 28% last season.

President Vladimir Putin ordered the government to boost agriculture exports by 50% by 2030 with grain exports hitting 80 million tons a year.

“Judging by the latest trend, the movement is going in the opposite direction, and this needs to be urgently corrected. We need to intensify supplies, we must work together to maintain Russia’s positions in the global market,” said Patrushev.

He flagged a change in the way the export duty is calculated as a possible measure to boost exports but said the duty, introduced to protect the domestic market, will remain in place.

“We proceed from the fact that export is an important sphere, but our priority is our domestic market. Based on this, we will make decisions,” Patrushev said.

Patrushev urged exporters to find new markets and said the loading capacity at Russian ports should be increased and supporting infrastructure improved.

Russian exported grain at a record pace in the first part of the season but exports slowed sharply in February when export caps, also aimed at protecting the domestic market from food price inflation, took effect.

Patrushev said that he expected this year’s harvest to be better than last year as the sowing campaign in many regions proceeded ahead of schedule.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Values continue to drop in Brazil

The corn supply has been increasing in the domestic market, and this scenario is likely to continue to be observed in the next weeks, especially because of the progress of the second crop harvesting. This context leads sellers to be more flexible about trades and consumers to be away from closing deals – they buy only for the short-term.

Earlier this week, forecasts of frosts in some corn producing areas in Brazil sustained quotations, since it concerned producers, and there are new projections of frosts and low temperatures in the South, Southeast and some regions in the Central-West. However, the perspective of high supply in Brazil continues and keeps pressing down values.

PRICES – On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, from May 22-29, corn values decreased 0.5% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 3.1% in the wholesale market (deals between processors). In the accumulated of the month, price drops are at 9.2% and 12.9%, respectively.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Indexes are practically stable in May

Soy prices registered slight oscillations in May, influenced by the supply scenario in South America, the pace of planting activities in the United States and the impacts of US tariffs on other countries and the reactions of governments that have been affected by these measures. This week, quotations decreased slightly, and the average in May ended up below that in April. Meanwhile, soybean exports continue to move at a good pace.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) downed 0.6% from May 22-29, closing at BRL 133.00 per 60-kg bag on May 29. Comparing averages in April and in May (up to May 29), the Index dropped 1.2%.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) remained stable between May 22 and 29, to close at BRL 128.18 per 60-kg bag. In the monthly comparison, the Index decreased 1.3%.

On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices upped 0.3% both in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 0.1% in the wholesale market (deals between processors). Comparing averages from April to May, values moved down 2.4% and 1.3%, respectively.

 

Indonesia’s B50 biodiesel plan may boost global CPO prices: Agriculture Minister

Indonesia’s plan to produce and promote the use of Biodiesel 50 (B50) is expected to drive up global crude palm oil (CPO) prices, according to Agriculture Minister Andi Amran Sulaiman.

B50 is a fuel blend consisting of 50 percent biofuel—derived primarily from palm oil—and 50 percent conventional diesel.

Speaking at an event celebrating the government’s success in boosting national rice reserves to 4 million tons in Jakarta, Sulaiman said the government plans to use approximately 5.3 million tons of CPO for B50 production. “Last year, we exported 26 million tons of CPO. What will happen if we cut exports to 21 million tons? Prices will rise,” he said as quoted by Indonesian news agency (ANTARA).

He noted that Indonesia supplies a substantial 65.94% of the world’s CPO, implying that any reduction in exports could significantly impact global prices. “A price hike will translate into better welfare for farmers, right? We’ll be happy to see our farmers prosper,” he told reporters.

Despite the planned cut in exports, Sulaiman assured that shipments to the European Union and the United States would not be affected. “We only need 2.3 million tons for Europe and 1.7 million tons for the U.S., so there won’t be any issues with exports,” he said.

On May 16, Deputy Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Yuliot Tanjung confirmed Indonesia’s readiness to begin developing B50 next year. He said Indonesia has enough fatty acid methyl esters—an essential biodiesel component derived from vegetable oils through transesterification—to support the initiative.

Tanjung also emphasised that the B50 program would not require the large-scale expansion of oil palm plantations.“We’ll rely on replanting programmes to meet our palm oil needs. So, there will be no extensive land expansion,” he stressed.

 

Bankruptcy court sale of Brazil soy crusher’s assets under legal threat

• Bunge and Cargill had coveted Imcopa’s plants before
• Court sets minimum price for assets at nearly $300 million
• Multi-jurisdictional litigation brings risk to the bidding

A legal dispute over control of Brazilian soy processor Imcopa, which has been under bankruptcy protection for about a decade, is threatening to derail a court-run auction for two crushing plants in southern Brazil that had previously drawn interest from major traders Bunge and Cargill.

R2C Investimentos, an asset manager that appointed Imcopa’s former management, is challenging what it called “irregularities” related to the July 3 auction, and vowed in a statement to warn potential bidders of “the illegalities of the competitive process.”

An attorney for brewer Cervejaria Petropolis, whose owner acquired most of Imcopa’s defaulted loans through firms in Brazil and abroad, said ongoing litigation in multiple jurisdictions should not affect the auction. The minimum price for the two plants and Imcopa’s soyoil brand is 1.7 billion real ($297.35 million), court filings showed.

The auction marks the latest attempt to sell the two Imcopa crushing plants located near soy-rich regions and a large port in Parana state. It is a rare acquisition opportunity in Brazil, the world’s largest soybean producer and a major soymeal exporter. However, legal risks involved and current negative crushing margins in Brazil may keep buyers at bay.

In February 2020, U.S. grains trader Bunge made the sole bid for the two plants, which have annual crushing capacity of 1.5 million metric tons of soy and specialize in non-transgenic soy processing. At the time, about 1 billion reais of debt were attached to the plants, whose sale process was run by the state bankruptcy court overseeing Imcopa’s restructuring since 2013.

The deal unravelled in 2021 amid the protracted court battles involving Cervejaria Petropolis, which had a leasing arrangement to operate the plants at the time.

Bunge, which never took control of the assets, declined to comment.

In 2023, Cargill advised the court of its potential interest in Imcopa’s assets, seeking clarification about the liabilities involved, documents seen by Reuters at the time showed, but a deal did not materialize.

Cargill declined to comment on Imcopa’s new auction, which will require buyers to deposit the minimum value in an escrow account to repay lenders and taxes, according to Cervejaria Petropolis.

After Bunge’s failed takeover attempt, it maintained an arrangement with Cervejaria Petropolis to supply soybeans to Imcopa in exchange for finished products. The brewer’s attorney said that deal lapsed last year, when both plants were idled for maintenance.

Cervejaria Petropolis has run Imcopa since March 2024, when the bankruptcy court gave it control after a criminal probe targeting former Imcopa executives, the brewer said at the time.

That sealed investigation is still underway. R2C has denied any wrongdoing involving Imcopa’s former management.

 

 

 

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