Global Ag News For June 5.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Fertilizer Affordability Challenged, Phosphates Worst in Decades

As fertilizer prices exceed crop-price declines, phosphates are the least affordable for farmers in the past decade. Benchmark prices are forecast at midcycle in 2025, and have risen 54% for diammonium phosphate (DAP), 48% for potash and 51% for urea so far in 1H. Corn has fallen 13% over the period. As of June, DAP is the most expensive in the past 10 years in terms of bushels of corn needed to buy a metric ton of fertilizer. Potash is above the five-year average affordability metric. Urea prices reflect rising input costs, while those for phosphates point to tight supply, particularly inland in the US.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3 in SRW, up 3/4 in HRW, up 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/2; Soybeans down 3 1/4; Soymeal down $1.20; Soyoil down 0.25.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 12 1/4 in SRW, up 8 in HRW, down 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal down $0.40; Soyoil down 0.33.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 1.0% in SRW, down 3.2% in HRW, up 4.7% in HRS; Corn is down 3.8%; Soybeans up 4.4%; Soymeal down 3.8%; Soyoil up 17.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans up 12 yuan; Soymeal up 16; Soyoil down 22; Palm oil down 50; Corn up 5 — Malaysian Palm is down 44.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 44 ringgit (-1.11%) at 3904.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 193 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 516 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 4 were: SRW Wheat up 157 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,957, Corn down 1,533, Soybeans up 3,580, Soymeal down 395, Soyoil down 2,591.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 04 JUNE 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Near or below normal temperatures are expected to prevail through most U.S. spring crop regions during the next 10 days, though the picture is more mixed thereafter
• SOUTH AMERICA: Heavy rainfall up to 75 mm above normal is expected in and around Parana, Brazil in the coming days
• AUSTRALIA: Cool and dry weather is expected across much of Australia during the next 10 days
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Dry conditions are expected across most of Indonesia and Malaysia during the next 10 days, with the largest deficits in Borneo and Sulawesi

 

Northern Plains: Isolated showers through Friday. Scattered showers east Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures below normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday. Outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal west and below normal east Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Midwest East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday.

Midwest West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday.

 

The player sheet for 6/4 had funds: net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 4,500 corn, buyers of 2,500 soybeans, buyers of 2,500 soymeal, and sellers of 500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
• BARLEY PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grain buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender seeking up to 120,000 tons.
• WHEAT DEALS: Egypt’s state grain buying agency, Mostakbal Misr, has secured major wheat contracts with strategic partners in France and Romania as part of a broader push to diversify supply and stabilize imports amid global uncertainty, it told Reuters.

 PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase together up to 210,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 metric tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins
• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB is holding a new international tender to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins for shipment during July 1-15.

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending May 29.

• Corn est. range 800k – 1,600k tons, with avg of 1,156k
• Soybean est. range 100k – 600k tons, with avg of 278k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 0.7% to 24.44M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 24.247 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.105m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.061m

 

Brazil soy exports seen reaching 12.55 million tons in June – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 12.55 MILLION METRIC TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 13.83 MILLION TNS IN THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.29 MILLION TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 2.05 MILLION TNS IN THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 835,660 TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 982,812 TNS IN THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR – ANEC

 

Rapid sowing progress keeps U.S. soybean production afloat despite gloomy June weather outlook

2025/26 U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 117 [108–122] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 U.S. soybean production is largely unchanged at 117 [108–122] million tons amid modest early season conditions and stable planting progress so far, though long-term weather outlooks for the summer remain rather dismal. In its latest WASDE report (released on 12 May), USDA pegged U.S. soy production at 118.1 million tons. The average of a Reuters poll of analysts’ own estimates (released on 06 May) placed national-level yield at 52.5 bushels per acre and production at 4.34 billion bushels (with a range of 4.30 to 4.40 billion bushels), compared with our median projection of 4.31 billion bushels. Our current estimate puts planted area at 84 million acres, down 3.4% from last season, which is 0.5 million acres above the USDA’s March estimate of 83.5 million acres in its Prospective Plantings report (31 March). The next USDA survey-based estimate of acreage will be released in the 30 June Acreage report.

USDA’s latest Crop Progress report (02 June) put total national-level soybean planting pace at 84%, well ahead of last year’s 77% and the five-year average of 80%. Total soy emergence has reached 63%, a 13% jump from last week and also ahead of the five-year average of 57%, indicating overall a robust crop progress is in full swing. Favorable planting conditions continued across most of the Soy Belt over the past two weeks, with cool temperatures (up to 0-8 °F below average) and dry weather (0.5-2 inches below normal) dominating the Central/Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The overwhelmingly rapid pace early in the season should be viewed with caution, however, as it may not necessarily imply high yield potential. The faster than normal planting/emergence progress means the more impactful of the June weather will likely be on the early crop development (than usual), which may turn out to be unfavorable given our current dismal outlook. Widespread warmth/dryness is anticipated to continue throughout the Soy Belt during June, while some key crop areas remain in great need for plentiful rainfall. Fortunately for farmers, recent GFS/EC model runs indicate the potential for a high precipitation pattern to return in the eastern parts of the Plains next week, which should provide some relief to the emerging crops there, but the rest of the Soy Belt – including the “I” states (i.e. Illinois, Iowa and Indiana) in particular – will likely remain dry, warranting attention.

 

U.S. corn production prospects remain steady but bleak summer weather may loom soon

2025/26 U.S. CORN PRODUCTION: 398 [379–417] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 U.S. corn production is largely unchanged at 398 [379–417] million tons amid modest early season conditions and stable planting progress so far, though long-term weather outlooks for the summer remain rather dismal. In its latest WASDE report (released on 12 May), USDA pegged U.S. corn production at 401.8 million tons. The average of a Reuters poll of analysts’ own estimates (released on 06 May) placed national-level yield at 181.1 bushels per acre and production at 15.79 billion bushels (with a range of 15.59 to 15.99 billion bushels), compared with our median projection of 15.66 billion bushels. Our current estimate puts planted area at 94.3 million acres, up 4.1% from last season, which is 1 million acres below the USDA’s March estimate of 95.3 million acres in its Prospective Plantings report (31 March). The next USDA survey-based estimate of acreage will be released in the 30 June Acreage report.

USDA’s latest Crop Progress report (02 June) put total national-level corn planting pace at 93%, ahead of last year’s 90% and on par with the five-year average of 93%. Total corn emergence has reached 78%, an 11% jump from last week and also slightly ahead of the five-year average of 77%, indicating overall a robust crop progress is in full swing. Favorable planting conditions continued across most of the Corn Belt over the past two weeks, with cool temperatures (up to 0-8 °F below average) and dry weather (0.5-2 inches below normal) dominating the Central/Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The seemingly healthy pace early in the season should be viewed with caution, however, as it may not necessarily imply high yield potential. The faster than normal planting/emergence progress means the more impactful of the June weather will likely be on the early crop development (than usual), which may turn out to be unfavorable given our current dismal outlook. Widespread warmth/dryness is anticipated to continue throughout the Corn Belt during June, while some key crop areas remain in great need for plentiful rainfall. Fortunately for farmers, recent GFS/EC model runs indicate the potential for a high precipitation pattern to return in the eastern parts of the Plains next week, which should provide some relief to the emerging crops there, but the rest of the Corn Belt – including the “I” states (i.e. Illinois, Iowa and Indiana) in particular – will likely remain dry, warranting attention.

 

Brazil corn production up on near record high Safrinha crop vegetation density

2024/25 BRAZIL CORN PRODUCTION: 127.4 [124.2–130.5] MILLION TONS, UP 1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2024/25 Brazil total corn production is increased by 1% to 127.4 [124.2–130.5] million tons, as core Safrinha crop producing areas of the Central-West and the Southeast continue to show near record high vegetation density levels despite declining soil moisture conditions and less than favorable short-term weather outlooks. Our current position is below the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 130 million tons (released on 12 May) but above the Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB)’s 126.9 million tons (released on 15 May). Dryness continued to dominate most key second crop regions in Brazil over the past two weeks, amid slightly cooler temperatures compared to late April/early May. Except for Paraná, which saw largely near to above average rains state-wide, virtually all key Safrinha corn regions remained dry, taking a toll on active crops that are moving through late stages of reproductive development. Despite overall retreating soil moisture levels, crop conditions remain appear to be positive, as reflected by near record high vegetation density levels in top producers such as Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás, and well above historical median levels in São Paulo. With harvest season immediately around the corner, most of them are expected to start dwindling soon, but the markedly high levels so far should indicate better than expected yields after early season struggles. The latest EC/GFS model forecasts call for a continued pattern of dryness at least through mid-June (except in Paraná), which should now rather bode well for crop maturing and harvest preparations.

 

China warns of more severe northern floods this summer

Floods in northern China from June to August are likely to be more severe this year, authorities said on Thursday in an initial forecast for a region spanning densely populated cities to sprawling cropland vital to grain cultivation.

Extreme storms and floods are set to be more frequent and more intense, state broadcaster CCTV cited the water resources ministry as saying.

China is no stranger to summer floods, especially its south. But as global warming picks up pace, the entire country has been roiled by extreme swings from record precipitation to wilting drought, driving mitigation efforts, even in the historically drier north.

 

Drought decreases China wheat production

2025/26 CHINA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 141.7 [139.3-144.3] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% from last update

Lack of precipitation has decreased wheat production in China, although high irrigation capacity has helped to mitigate the losses. Some areas of Henan province, a key wheat-producing region, received as little as 30 mm of precipitation over the past three months, which is over 100 mm below average. Low vegetation densities since late April across these regions have confirmed the adverse effects of the drought on crop development. The dry conditions extended northward in May. Most of Shandong province, another major wheat-producing area, experienced minimal rainfall since May 10, limiting yield potential. However, high irrigation capacity across the North China Plain and moderate temperatures limit yield losses. In addition, favorable conditions in the North offset losses in the South, keeping total wheat production at a record high. Widespread rain is anticipated around mid-June, which would help little for wheat production, but boost soil moisture for summer corn planting.

 

Summer weather outlooks suggest high corn yield and production in China

2025/26 CHINA CORN PRODUCTION: 299.4 [291.6–304.7] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

Slightly warm and dry weather recently dominated the Northeast, but soil moisture remains high due to prior wet conditions. There is currently no immediate threat to spring corn production, although ongoing soil moisture deficits in the southern North China Plain could pose risks to summer corn production. According to LSEG’s summer weather forecasts, normal precipitation and mild temperatures are anticipated across the major corn-producing regions during June-August, including the Northeast and North China Plain. If verified, the summer weather would be favorable for corn production. Consequently, we maintain 2025/26 China corn production estimate at 299 million tons, reflecting an increase of 4.5 million tons from the previous season.

 

Brazil agriculture minister: signs show efficient control of bird flu outbreak

Brazil’s Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro said on Wednesday there were strong indications that the world’s biggest chicken exporter had efficiently contained a bird flu outbreak which was reported on a commercial chicken farm in mid-May.

Brazil’s first-ever case of the highly pathogenic avian influenza was reported on a commercial farm in Rio Grande do Sul state, prompting dozens of trade partners to place countrywide and regional level trade bans on Brazilian poultryexports.

Countries including China, South Korea and the European Union were in talks with Brazil to ease their bans, Favaro told reporters in Brasilia, adding that some partners were expected to relax restrictions before the 28-day observation period is up later this month, provided no other commercial-farm outbreaks occur.

On May 30 China, the biggest importer of Brazilian poultry, announced a country-wide ban on chicken produced in Brazil, even though the Brazilian government had sought a more lenient, regional restriction.

Since the outbreak on the commercial farm, chicken prices in Brazil have fallen around 7%, Favaro said, adding the decline was normal and not alarming and that almost three quarters of Brazil’s chicken production was now being consumed domestically.

The country has processed over 4,000 tests and has so far confirmed 171 outbreaks of bird flu in the last two years, most of which were found in wild birds.

Brazil is currently investigating nine suspect bird flu cases nationwide, including another case on a commercial farm which is also located in Rio Grande do Sul.

 

USDA to Review Reports Following Delay of Latest Trade Outlook

The US Department of Agriculture is undergoing a review of non-statutory reports including a quarterly forecast on trade that pointed to a record farming deficit.

The agriculture report, which is released on a quarterly basis, was expected to be updated on May 29. It typically shows the USDA’s estimates for exports and imports of several farm product categories as well as an analysis by the agency’s economists. A version of the report showing a trade deficit but stripped from comments and analysis was released on June 2.

“The report was hung up in internal clearance process and was not finalized in time for its typical deadline,” a USDA spokesperson said in an emailed statement. “Given this report is not statutory as with many other reports USDA does, the department is undergoing a review of all of its non-statutory reports, including this one, to determine next steps.”

Trump administration officials delayed and redacted the forecast because the increased agriculture deficit ran counter to the president’s messaging that his policies will reduce US trade imbalances, according to a Politico report on Wednesday citing people familiar with the matter.

Donald Trump’s tariff policies have disrupted global markets as companies and countries navigate the potential impact. The America-first agenda has already hit crop exports, with top commodities buyer China currently having no sales on the books for US corn, soybeans or wheat to be shipped next season.

Still, American growers remain optimistic, with a gauge of US farmer sentiment by Purdue University and CME Group reaching the highest level since 2021. The survey of some 400 producers took place between May 12-16, just after the Trump administration announced “substantial progress” toward a trade deal with China.

 

 

 

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